Track record
Every score FlowDesk has ever produced is recorded as a prediction the moment it's made, and checked against the real price move once the horizon elapses — automatically, by the same cron job that scores every symbol. Nothing on this page is cherry-picked, hand-selected, or removed after the fact. "Hit" means the direction of the actual move matched the sign of the composite score, with moves under 0.05% not counted either way (too small to call a direction).
Hit rate by composite band
If the composite score is meaningful, stronger readings (further from zero) should hit more often than weak ones. This is the same data broken out by how strong the call was — the honest test of whether conviction tracks with the score.
| Composite band | Sample | Hit rate | Median move | Mean move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -90 to -80 | 1 |
0%
|
+0.00% | +0.00% |
| -80 to -70 | 1694 |
16%
|
+0.00% | +0.21% |
| -70 to -60 | 3 |
33%
|
+0.00% | +0.17% |
| -60 to -50 | 134 |
5%
|
+0.00% | +0.14% |
| -50 to -40 | 3 |
67%
|
-0.96% | -0.70% |
| -40 to -30 | 5426 |
1%
|
+0.00% | -0.01% |
| -30 to -20 | 1788 |
2%
|
+0.00% | -0.02% |
| -20 to -10 | 1951 |
3%
|
+0.00% | +0.06% |
| -10 to 0 | 2834 |
4%
|
+0.00% | -0.04% |
| 0 to 10 | 2193 |
1%
|
+0.00% | -0.04% |
| 10 to 20 | 3253 |
4%
|
+0.00% | +0.01% |
| 20 to 30 | 6250 |
3%
|
+0.00% | +0.06% |
| 30 to 40 | 4620 |
2%
|
+0.00% | +0.02% |
| 40 to 50 | 4322 |
9%
|
+0.00% | +0.10% |
| 50 to 60 | 486 |
9%
|
+0.00% | +0.30% |
| 60 to 70 | 1248 |
24%
|
+0.00% | +1.05% |
| 70 to 80 | 498 |
8%
|
+0.00% | -0.60% |
| 80 to 90 | 285 |
17%
|
+0.00% | +0.74% |
| 90 to 100 | 65 |
20%
|
+0.00% | +0.11% |
| 100 to 110 | 102 |
2%
|
+0.00% | -0.26% |
Methodology: a prediction is recorded the moment a symbol is scored, using that moment's composite reading and spot price. It's checked once the chosen horizon has elapsed, comparing the spot price then vs. now. A move under 0.05% is treated as flat and doesn't count as a hit or a miss either way. Predictions still waiting on their horizon to elapse are counted in "predictions made" but not yet in "hit rate" or "predictions checked."