AES
AES
$14.96 · scored 14:01 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 61/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 61/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−13.5 composite
Evidence
61 / 100 · top 19% today
1,065 contracts · quality 66 · stability 0.00
has paid −1.35% · n=4,096
What traded today · weight 62%
−11.5 pts
434 calls · 40.8%631 puts
bias −18.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−2.0 pts
56,246 call OI · 47.4%62,482 put OI
bias −5.3 × 0.38
Equals
−13.5
85% of the score comes from today’s volume, 15% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring AES today.
There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lotconfidence 61 (81th pct) · quality 66 · 1,065 contracts
noteJumpy0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
passThis kind of read has paidmildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −1.35% avg, n=4,096
noteToo few of our calls checked2 closed calls on AES
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $14.96 highlighted. The $15 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 32,284).
20 Oct · 4h
$14.96 → $14.96
+0.00%flat
20 Oct · 4h
$14.96 → $14.96
+0.00%flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 2 of these 2 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street —Next report —
P/E —Beta —
52w —IV rank —
AES
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
−13.5evidence 61
has paid −1.35% · n=4,096
Why it’s −13
−11.5 volume · 41% calls−2.0 OI · 47% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lot
confidence 61 (81th pct) · quality 66 · 1,065 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 30
noteToo few of our calls checked
2 closed calls on AES
What traded today · 62%
−11.5 pts
434 calls · 631 puts · bias −18.5
What’s on the books · 38%
−2.0 pts
56,246 call OI · 62,482 put OI · bias −5.3
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 2 closed
20 Oct · 4h
$14.96 → $14.96
+0.00%flat
20 Oct · 4h
$14.96 → $14.96
+0.00%flat
The read flips to bullishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $15 wallprice · above
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about AES
Not enough tape history on AES for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.