AUR AUR
$5.05 · scored 07:59 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 47/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 47/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−34.3 composite
Evidence
47 / 100 · top 58% today
3,376 contracts · quality 72 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
What traded today · weight 62%
−21.3 pts
1,109 calls · 32.8% 2,267 puts
bias −34.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
No open interest stored for today’s chain.
Equals
−34.3
100% of the score comes from today’s volume, 0% from open interest. Smoothing and calibration add −13.0. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring AUR today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 47 (42th pct) · quality 72 · 3,376 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 29
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=15,572
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on AUR
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $5.05 highlighted. The $1 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 0). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
We haven’t checked a call on AUR yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
AUR
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−34.3 evidence
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
Why it’s −34
−21.3 volume · 33% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 47 (42th pct) · quality 72 · 3,376 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 29
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on AUR
What traded today · 62%
−21.3 pts
1,109 calls · 2,267 puts · bias −34.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $1 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AUR
Not enough tape history on AUR for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our AUR record what it is? What’s the $1 wall?