FCPT FCPT
$21.43 · scored 08:24 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 30/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 30/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−36.6 composite
Evidence
30 / 100 · top 95% today
26 contracts · quality 48 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.36% · n=16,987
What traded today · weight 62%
−62.0 pts
0 calls · 0.0% 26 puts
bias −100.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+25.4 pts
466 call OI · 83.4% 93 put OI
bias +66.7 × 0.38
Equals
−36.6
71% of the score comes from today’s volume, 29% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring FCPT today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 30 (5th pct) · quality 48 · 26 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.36% avg, n=16,987
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on FCPT
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $21.43 highlighted. The $22.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 261). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on FCPT Proof We haven’t checked a call on FCPT yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
FCPT
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−36.6 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.36% · n=16,987
Why it’s −37
−62.0 volume · 0% calls+25.4 OI · 83% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 30 (5th pct) · quality 48 · 26 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.36% avg, n=16,987
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on FCPT
What traded today · 62%
−62.0 pts
0 calls · 26 puts · bias −100.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+25.4 pts
466 call OI · 93 put OI · bias +66.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $22.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about FCPT
Not enough tape history on FCPT for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our FCPT record what it is? What’s the $22.5 wall?