STWD
STWD
$12.58 · +0.00% vs $12.58 close · scored 10:30 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 51/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 51/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+23.8 composite
Evidence
51 / 100 · top 47% today
480 contracts · quality 50 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.59% · n=4,934
What traded today · weight 62%
+34.6 pts
374 calls · 77.9%106 puts
bias +55.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−10.8 pts
2,119 call OI · 35.8%3,801 put OI
bias −28.4 × 0.38
Equals
+23.8
76% of the score comes from today’s volume, 24% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring STWD today.
There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lotconfidence 51 (53th pct) · quality 50 · 480 contracts
noteJumpy0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
againstThis kind of read hasn’t paidmildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.59% avg, n=4,934
noteToo few of our calls checked1 closed call on STWD
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $12.58 highlighted. The $12 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,861).
05Our record on STWD
Proof
23 Oct · 4h
$12.58 → $12.58
+0.00%flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street —Next report —
P/E —Beta —
52w —IV rank —
STWD
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+23.8evidence 51
hasn’t paid −0.59% · n=4,934
Why it’s +24
+34.6 volume · 78% calls−10.8 OI · 36% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lot
confidence 51 (53th pct) · quality 50 · 480 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
againstThis kind of read hasn’t paid
mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.59% avg, n=4,934
noteToo few of our calls checked
1 closed call on STWD
What traded today · 62%
+34.6 pts
374 calls · 106 puts · bias +55.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−10.8 pts
2,119 call OI · 3,801 put OI · bias −28.4
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
23 Oct · 4h
$12.58 → $12.58
+0.00%flat
The read flips to bearishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $12 wallprice · below
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about STWD
Not enough tape history on STWD for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.