ARES ARES
$112.49 · scored 08:02 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 49/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 49/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−45.0 composite
Evidence
49 / 100 · top 50% today
1,925 contracts · quality 71 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
What traded today · weight 62%
−27.9 pts
529 calls · 27.5% 1,396 puts
bias −45.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
No open interest stored for today’s chain.
Equals
−45.0
100% of the score comes from today’s volume, 0% from open interest. Smoothing and calibration add −17.1. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring ARES today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 49 (50th pct) · quality 71 · 1,925 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=15,572
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on ARES
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $112.49 highlighted. The $100 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 0). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on ARES Proof We haven’t checked a call on ARES yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
ARES
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−45.0 evidence
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
Why it’s −45
−27.9 volume · 27% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 49 (50th pct) · quality 71 · 1,925 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on ARES
What traded today · 62%
−27.9 pts
529 calls · 1,396 puts · bias −45.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $100 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ARES
Not enough tape history on ARES for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our ARES record what it is? What’s the $100 wall?