NREF NREF
$15.23 · +0.00% vs $15.23 close · scored 03:18 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 38/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 38/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−28.6 composite
Evidence
38 / 100 · top 82% today
128 contracts · quality 43 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.79% · n=10,544
What traded today · weight 62%
−42.6 pts
20 calls · 15.6% 108 puts
bias −68.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+14.0 pts
290 call OI · 68.4% 134 put OI
bias +36.8 × 0.38
Equals
−28.6
75% of the score comes from today’s volume, 25% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring NREF today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 38 (18th pct) · quality 43 · 128 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.79% avg, n=10,544
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on NREF
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $15.23 highlighted. The $17.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 286).
05 Our record on NREF Proof 22 Oct · 4h
$15.23 → $15.23
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
NREF
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−28.6 evidence
has paid −0.79% · n=10,544
Why it’s −29
−42.6 volume · 16% calls+14.0 OI · 68% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 38 (18th pct) · quality 43 · 128 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on NREF
What traded today · 62%
−42.6 pts
20 calls · 108 puts · bias −68.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+14.0 pts
290 call OI · 134 put OI · bias +36.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
22 Oct · 4h
$15.23 → $15.23
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $17.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about NREF
Not enough tape history on NREF for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our NREF record what it is? What’s the $17.5 wall?