ST ST
$42.10 · scored 08:07 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 39/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 39/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−31.3 composite
Evidence
39 / 100 · top 79% today
3 contracts · quality 39 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.73% · n=18,463
What traded today · weight 62%
−20.7 pts
1 calls · 33.3% 2 puts
bias −33.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−10.7 pts
100 call OI · 36.0% 178 put OI
bias −28.1 × 0.38
Equals
−31.3
66% of the score comes from today’s volume, 34% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring ST today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 39 (21th pct) · quality 39 · 3 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.73% avg, n=18,463
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on ST
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $42.10 highlighted. The $42.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 115). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
13 Oct · 4h
$42.10 → $42.10
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
ST
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−31.3 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.73% · n=18,463
Why it’s −31
−20.7 volume · 33% calls−10.7 OI · 36% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 39 (21th pct) · quality 39 · 3 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.73% avg, n=18,463
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on ST
What traded today · 62%
−20.7 pts
1 calls · 2 puts · bias −33.3
What’s on the books · 38%
−10.7 pts
100 call OI · 178 put OI · bias −28.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
13 Oct · 4h
$42.10 → $42.10
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $42.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ST
Not enough tape history on ST for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our ST record what it is? What’s the $42.5 wall?