AAPL Apple Inc
$333.40 · −2.12% vs $340.60 close · scored 15:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 89/100
What changed
Composite weakened 14.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 89/100
For the read
signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+7.5 composite┆ +21.9 yesterday (−14.4) −24.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
89 / 100 · top 1% today
369,483 contracts · quality 97 · stability 0.94
neutral · +1.15% · n=1,055
What traded today · weight 62%
+4.1 pts
196,968 calls · 53.3% 172,515 puts
bias +6.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+3.4 pts
199,604 call OI · 54.4% 167,134 put OI
bias +8.9 × 0.38
Equals
+7.5
55% of the score comes from today’s volume, 45% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +7.11% · tape −27.9 · corr 0.22
◆ +18.5 in a day ▼ low +2.7 ● peak +36 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $341 $315 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 7.11% while the tape has faded 27.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 89 (99th pct) · quality 97 · 369,483 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · high liquidity → +1.15% avg, n=1,055
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AAPL’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.36, n=52)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on AAPL is poor 11% hit rate on 1968 closed calls · payoff 0.79×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $333.40 highlighted. The $335 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 32,358). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on AAPL Proof 11%
hit rate · 1968 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$333.40 → $333.40
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$340.42 → $333.40
−2.06% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$340.42 → $333.40
−2.06% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$340.42 → $333.40
−2.06% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1513 of these 1968 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 37.76 · fwd 35.34 Beta 1.106
52w $243.42–$345.34 IV rank —
Ask about AAPL answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +32 to +7 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +23.0 on 8 Oct, then fell to +7.5 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $336.67 to $340.60. It’s at +7.5 now.+4.1 from volume and +3.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 15:42 method · 62/38
Compare with SQ Why is our AAPL record what it is? What’s the $335 wall?
What our data projects
+0.06 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#235 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $335 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Apple Inc · Technology
Neutral, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+7.5 ┆ +21.9 yday evidence
neutral · +1.15% · n=1,055
Why it’s +7
+4.1 volume · 53% calls+3.4 OI · 54% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +18.5 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $341 $315 Price +7.11%, tape −27.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 89 (99th pct) · quality 97 · 369,483 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · high liquidity → +1.15% avg, n=1,055
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AAPL’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.36, n=52)
What traded today · 62%
+4.1 pts
196,968 calls · 172,515 puts · bias +6.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+3.4 pts
199,604 call OI · 167,134 put OI · bias +8.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +7.11% · tape −27.9 · corr 0.22
◆ +18.5 in a day ▼ low +2.7 ● peak +36 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $341 $315 Over 30 days, price has risen 7.11% while the tape has faded 27.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
11% hit rate · 1968 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$333.40 → $333.40
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$340.42 → $333.40
−2.06% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$340.42 → $333.40
−2.06% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$340.42 → $333.40
−2.06% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $335 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AAPL
Why did the score drop from +32 to +7 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +23.0 on 8 Oct, then fell to +7.5 on 9 Oct as the price moved from $336.67 to $340.60. It’s at +7.5 now.+4.1 from volume and +3.4 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 53 pts stock_scores · 15:42 method · 62/38
Compare with SQ Why is our AAPL record what it is? What’s the $335 wall?