ADSK

Autodesk Inc

$236.08 · +1.06% vs $233.60 close · scored 15:43 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 60/100

What changed

Composite strengthened 13.2 points.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 60/100

For the read

signal has been stable

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read

The read

Neutral, moderately evidenced, but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

−1.7 composite┆ −14.9 yesterday (+13.2)+11.5 vs a week ago

Evidence

60 / 100 · top 38% today

2,069 contracts · quality 86 · stability 0.84

neutral · +0.40% · n=12,401

Why it’s −2

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−5.4 pts

944 calls · 45.6%1,125 puts

bias −8.7 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+3.7 pts

7,707 call OI · 54.9%6,336 put OI

bias +9.8 × 0.38

Equals

−1.7

59% of the score comes from today’s volume, 41% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price +10.08% · tape −8.1 · corr 0.18

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 10.08% while the tape has faded 8.1 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 86 · 2,069 contracts

pass

Stable

0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.40% avg, n=12,401

note

Tape is confirming, not predicting

price has led ADSK’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=42)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits low relative to price

against

Our record on ADSK is poor

29% hit rate on 607 closed calls · payoff 0.57×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$260

$255

$250

$245

$242.5

$240

$237.5

$235

$232.5

$230

WALL · OI 1,697

$227.5

$225

$222.5

$220

$217.5

$215

$212.5

$210

$207.5

Spot $236.08 highlighted. The $230 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,697). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on ADSK

Proof

29%

hit rate · 607 closed

0.57×

payoff

−0.42%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$236.08 → $236.08

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$233.60 → $236.08

+1.06%miss

9 Oct · 4h

$233.60 → $236.08

+1.06%miss

9 Oct · 4h

$233.60 → $236.08

+1.06%miss

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 300 of these 607 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

+5.71%Q1 ’26

+3.06%Q2 ’26

+3.57%Q3 ’26

+3.57%Q2 ’27

Street Buy-leaningNext report 27 Aug AMC P/E 29.92 · fwd 16.12Beta 1.291 52w $185.50–$326.20IV rank —