AER AER
$145.90 · scored 08:23 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 44/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 44/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−44.6 composite
Evidence
44 / 100 · top 67% today
384 contracts · quality 76 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.36% · n=16,987
What traded today · weight 62%
−57.2 pts
15 calls · 3.9% 369 puts
bias −92.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.6 pts
11,976 call OI · 66.5% 6,023 put OI
bias +33.1 × 0.38
Equals
−44.6
82% of the score comes from today’s volume, 18% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring AER today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 44 (33th pct) · quality 76 · 384 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.36% avg, n=16,987
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on AER
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $145.90 highlighted. The $120 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,896). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
We haven’t checked a call on AER yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
AER
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−44.6 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.36% · n=16,987
Why it’s −45
−57.2 volume · 4% calls+12.6 OI · 67% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 44 (33th pct) · quality 76 · 384 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.36% avg, n=16,987
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on AER
What traded today · 62%
−57.2 pts
15 calls · 369 puts · bias −92.2
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.6 pts
11,976 call OI · 6,023 put OI · bias +33.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $120 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AER
Not enough tape history on AER for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our AER record what it is? What’s the $120 wall?