AGNC
AGNC
$8.57 · +0.00% vs $8.57 close · scored 15:46 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 69/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 69/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+50.7 composite
Evidence
69 / 100 · top 11% today
14,057 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.17% · n=15,998
What traded today · weight 62%
+54.2 pts
13,175 calls · 93.7%882 puts
bias +87.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−3.6 pts
360,367 call OI · 45.3%434,725 put OI
bias −9.4 × 0.38
Equals
+50.7
94% of the score comes from today’s volume, 6% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring AGNC today.
There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lotconfidence 69 (89th pct) · quality 82 · 14,057 contracts
noteJumpy0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
againstThis kind of read hasn’t paidstrongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.17% avg, n=15,998
noteToo few of our calls checked1 closed call on AGNC
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $8.57 highlighted. The $10 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 190,443). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05Our record on AGNC
Proof
13 Oct · 4h
$8.57 → $8.57
+0.00%flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street —Next report —
P/E —Beta —
52w —IV rank —
AGNC
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+50.7evidence 69
hasn’t paid −1.17% · n=15,998
Why it’s +51
+54.2 volume · 94% calls−3.6 OI · 45% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
noteSome evidence, not a lot
confidence 69 (89th pct) · quality 82 · 14,057 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
againstThis kind of read hasn’t paid
strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.17% avg, n=15,998
noteToo few of our calls checked
1 closed call on AGNC
What traded today · 62%
+54.2 pts
13,175 calls · 882 puts · bias +87.5
What’s on the books · 38%
−3.6 pts
360,367 call OI · 434,725 put OI · bias −9.4
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
13 Oct · 4h
$8.57 → $8.57
+0.00%flat
The read flips to bearishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $10 wallprice · above
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about AGNC
Not enough tape history on AGNC for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.