AIFU
AIFU Inc
$10.91 · +6.75% vs $10.22 close · scored 21:38 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 37/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 37/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced, and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+89.7 composite┆ +89.7 yesterday (+0.0)+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
37 / 100 · top 86% today
0 contracts · quality 24 · stability 0.99
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
No call/put volume stored for today, so the score can’t be split.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −36.16% · tape +0.0 · corr 0.00
Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 36.16% while the tape has barely moved (+0.0). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidenceconfidence 37 (14th pct) · quality 24 · 0 contracts
passStable0.99 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
passThis kind of read has paidstrongly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → +31.94% avg, n=11,250
passTape has led pricetape has led AIFU’s price by 3 days (r=0.59, n=45)
noteStretched vs its own historytoday’s tape sits high relative to price
noteOur record on AIFU is mixed37% hit rate on 160 closed calls · payoff 1.64×
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $10.91 highlighted. The $7.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 31). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05Our record on AIFU
Proof
8 Oct · 4h
$10.91 → $10.91
+0.00%flat
4 Oct · 4h
$10.22 → $10.22
+0.00%flat
12 Sep · 4h
$10.74 → $10.74
+0.00%flat
12 Sep · 4h
$10.74 → $10.74
+0.00%flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 40 of these 160 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street MixedNext report —
P/E — · fwd 14.99Beta 1.011
52w $8.17–$117.40IV rank —
AIFU Inc · Insurance
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced. The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+89.7┆ +89.7 ydayevidence 37
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
46 days · tape bars, price line
Price −36.16%, tape +0.0 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidence
confidence 37 (14th pct) · quality 24 · 0 contracts
passStable
0.99 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
noteStretched vs its own history
today’s tape sits high relative to price
noteOur record on AIFU is mixed
37% hit rate on 160 closed calls · payoff 1.64×
No call/put volume stored for today.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −36.16% · tape +0.0 · corr 0.00
Over 30 days, price has fallen 36.16% while the tape has barely moved (+0.0). The two are drifting apart.
37% hit rate · 160 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$10.91 → $10.91
+0.00%flat
4 Oct · 4h
$10.22 → $10.22
+0.00%flat
12 Sep · 4h
$10.74 → $10.74
+0.00%flat
12 Sep · 4h
$10.74 → $10.74
+0.00%flat
The read flips to bearishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $7.5 wallprice · below
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about AIFU
What is behind today’s +89.7?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +89.7 across the last 8 sessions.
tape_history · 46 ptsstock_scores · 21:38method · 62/38