AIG American International Group Inc
$77.05 · +0.06% vs $77.00 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 52/100
What changed
Composite weakened 13.7 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 52/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−5.1 composite┆ +8.5 yesterday (−13.7) −16.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
52 / 100 · top 58% today
732 contracts · quality 84 · stability 0.83
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
What traded today · weight 62%
−12.0 pts
295 calls · 40.3% 437 puts
bias −19.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+6.9 pts
3,749 call OI · 59.1% 2,596 put OI
bias +18.2 × 0.38
Equals
−5.1
64% of the score comes from today’s volume, 36% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.11% · tape −31.0 · corr 0.13
▼ low −18.7 ◆ +53.6 in a day ● peak +52 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $77 $73 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 3.11% while the tape has faded 31.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 52 (42th pct) · quality 84 · 732 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AIG’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.39, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on AIG is poor 35% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 2.28×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $77.05 highlighted. The $76 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,034). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
35%
hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 812 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 13.21 · fwd 8.75 Beta 0.505
52w $71.25–$87.29 IV rank —
Ask about AIG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +12 to −5 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +11.8 on 2 Oct, then rose to +51.7 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $75.43 to $74.78. It’s at −5.1 now.−12.0 from volume and +6.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our AIG record what it is? What’s the $76 wall?
What our data projects
−0.44 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#547 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $76 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
American International Group Inc · Insurance
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−5.1 ┆ +8.5 yday evidence
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
Why it’s −5
−12.0 volume · 40% calls+6.9 OI · 59% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +53.6 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $77 $73 Price +3.11%, tape −31.0 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 52 (42th pct) · quality 84 · 732 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AIG’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.39, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−12.0 pts
295 calls · 437 puts · bias −19.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+6.9 pts
3,749 call OI · 2,596 put OI · bias +18.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.11% · tape −31.0 · corr 0.13
▼ low −18.7 ◆ +53.6 in a day ● peak +52 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $77 $73 Over 30 days, price has risen 3.11% while the tape has faded 31.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
35% hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$77.05 → $77.05
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $76 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AIG
Why did the score drop from +12 to −5 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +11.8 on 2 Oct, then rose to +51.7 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $75.43 to $74.78. It’s at −5.1 now.−12.0 from volume and +6.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our AIG record what it is? What’s the $76 wall?