AMAT Applied Materials Inc
$510.50 · +0.18% vs $509.57 close · scored 15:46 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 69/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 69/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−20.2 composite−19.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
69 / 100 · top 16% today
8,867 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.22% · n=1,509
What traded today · weight 62%
−15.6 pts
3,317 calls · 37.4% 5,550 puts
bias −25.2 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−4.6 pts
55,842 call OI · 44.0% 71,053 put OI
bias −12.0 × 0.38
Equals
−20.2
77% of the score comes from today’s volume, 23% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +7.78% · tape −14.8 · corr -0.59
● peak +3 ◆ −16.1 in a day ▼ low −20.2 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $542 $456 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 7.78% while the tape has faded 14.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 69 (84th pct) · quality 80 · 8,867 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.22% avg, n=1,509
pass Tape has led price tape has led AMAT’s price by 2 days (r=0.19, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on AMAT is mixed 38% hit rate on 523 closed calls · payoff 1.14×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $510.50 highlighted. The $370 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,199). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on AMAT Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$510.50 → $510.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$509.57 → $510.50
+0.18% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$509.57 → $510.50
+0.18% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$509.57 → $510.50
+0.18% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 182 of these 523 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 46.25 · fwd 26.13 Beta 1.627
52w $203.40–$739.67 IV rank —
Ask about AMAT answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +0 to −20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −0.3 on 3 Oct, then fell to −16.4 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $541.59 to $541.59. It’s at −20.2 now.−15.6 from volume and −4.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our AMAT record what it is? What’s the $370 wall?
What our data projects
+0.35 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#112 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $370 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Applied Materials Inc · Semiconductors
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−20.2 evidence
has paid −0.22% · n=1,509
Why it’s −20
−15.6 volume · 37% calls−4.6 OI · 44% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −16.1 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $542 $456 Price +7.78%, tape −14.8 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 69 (84th pct) · quality 80 · 8,867 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on AMAT is mixed 38% hit rate on 523 closed calls · payoff 1.14×
What traded today · 62%
−15.6 pts
3,317 calls · 5,550 puts · bias −25.2
What’s on the books · 38%
−4.6 pts
55,842 call OI · 71,053 put OI · bias −12.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +7.78% · tape −14.8 · corr -0.59
● peak +3 ◆ −16.1 in a day ▼ low −20.2 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $542 $456 Over 30 days, price has risen 7.78% while the tape has faded 14.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
38% hit rate · 523 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$510.50 → $510.50
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$509.57 → $510.50
+0.18% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$509.57 → $510.50
+0.18% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$509.57 → $510.50
+0.18% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $370 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AMAT
Why did the score drop from +0 to −20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −0.3 on 3 Oct, then fell to −16.4 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $541.59 to $541.59. It’s at −20.2 now.−15.6 from volume and −4.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our AMAT record what it is? What’s the $370 wall?