AMGN Amgen Inc
$406.81 · +0.00% vs $406.79 close · scored 14:32 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 66/100
What changed
Composite weakened 12.8 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−0.1 composite┆ +12.7 yesterday (−12.8) −32.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 23% today
4,176 contracts · quality 88 · stability 0.83
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
What traded today · weight 62%
+0.7 pts
2,111 calls · 50.6% 2,065 puts
bias +1.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−0.8 pts
65,737 call OI · 49.0% 68,488 put OI
bias −2.0 × 0.38
Equals
−0.1
47% of the score comes from today’s volume, 53% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.46% · tape −0.7 · corr 0.36
◆ +55.0 in a day ▼ low −52.3 ● peak +37 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $443 $376 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 3.46% while the tape has barely moved (−0.7). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (77th pct) · quality 88 · 4,176 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AMGN’s tape by 2 days (r=0.36, n=44)
against Our record on AMGN is poor 16% hit rate on 662 closed calls · payoff 0.61×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $406.81 highlighted. The $400 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 8,111). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on AMGN Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$406.81 → $406.81
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$407.44 → $406.81
−0.15% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$407.44 → $406.81
−0.15% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$407.44 → $406.81
−0.15% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 164 of these 662 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 24.78 · fwd 17.05 Beta 0.444
52w $288.00–$447.03 IV rank —
Ask about AMGN answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +32 to +0 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +23.0 on 7 Oct, then fell to −0.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $402.98 to $413.08. It’s at −0.1 now.+0.7 from volume and −0.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:32 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our AMGN record what it is? What’s the $400 wall?
What our data projects
+0.02 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#259 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $400 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Amgen Inc · Biotechnology
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−0.1 ┆ +12.7 yday evidence
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
Why it’s +0
+0.7 volume · 51% calls−0.8 OI · 49% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +55.0 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $443 $376 Price +3.46%, tape −0.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (77th pct) · quality 88 · 4,176 contracts
pass Stable 0.83 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AMGN’s tape by 2 days (r=0.36, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+0.7 pts
2,111 calls · 2,065 puts · bias +1.1
What’s on the books · 38%
−0.8 pts
65,737 call OI · 68,488 put OI · bias −2.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.46% · tape −0.7 · corr 0.36
◆ +55.0 in a day ▼ low −52.3 ● peak +37 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $443 $376 Over 30 days, price has risen 3.46% while the tape has barely moved (−0.7). The two are drifting apart.
16% hit rate · 662 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$406.81 → $406.81
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$407.44 → $406.81
−0.15% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$407.44 → $406.81
−0.15% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$407.44 → $406.81
−0.15% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $400 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AMGN
Why did the score drop from +32 to +0 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +23.0 on 7 Oct, then fell to −0.1 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $402.98 to $413.08. It’s at −0.1 now.+0.7 from volume and −0.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:32 method · 62/38
Compare with PURR Why is our AMGN record what it is? What’s the $400 wall?