AON Aon PLC
$275.67 · −0.52% vs $277.12 close · scored 15:50 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 59/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 3.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 59/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−9.2 composite┆ −12.3 yesterday (+3.1) −71.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
59 / 100 · top 40% today
1,272 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.76
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
What traded today · weight 62%
−9.7 pts
536 calls · 42.1% 736 puts
bias −15.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+0.6 pts
4,212 call OI · 50.8% 4,086 put OI
bias +1.5 × 0.38
Equals
−9.2
94% of the score comes from today’s volume, 6% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −14.23% · tape −25.4 · corr 0.02
▼ low −25.3 ● peak +62 ◆ −38.8 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $305 $269 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 14.23% while the tape has faded 25.4 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 83 · 1,272 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AON’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.17, n=44)
against Our record on AON is poor 23% hit rate on 418 closed calls · payoff 2.02×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $275.67 highlighted. The $310 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,276). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$275.67 → $275.67
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$277.12 → $275.67
−0.52% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$277.12 → $275.67
−0.52% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$277.12 → $277.12
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 223 of these 418 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 14.99 · fwd 14.24 Beta 0.659
52w $269.02–$382.34 IV rank —
Ask about AON answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +62 to −9 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +27.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to −11.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $269.45 to $270.47. It’s at −9.2 now.−9.7 from volume and +0.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:50 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our AON record what it is? What’s the $310 wall?
What our data projects
−0.14 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#360 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $310 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Aon PLC · Insurance
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−9.2 ┆ −12.3 yday evidence
neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567
Why it’s −9
−9.7 volume · 42% calls+0.6 OI · 51% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −38.8 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $305 $269 Price −14.23%, tape −25.4 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 83 · 1,272 contracts
note Jumpy 0.76 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led AON’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.17, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−9.7 pts
536 calls · 736 puts · bias −15.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+0.6 pts
4,212 call OI · 4,086 put OI · bias +1.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −14.23% · tape −25.4 · corr 0.02
▼ low −25.3 ● peak +62 ◆ −38.8 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $305 $269 Over 30 days, price has fallen 14.23% while the tape has faded 25.4 points. They agree.
23% hit rate · 418 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$275.67 → $275.67
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$277.12 → $275.67
−0.52% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$277.12 → $275.67
−0.52% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$277.12 → $277.12
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $310 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about AON
Why did the score drop from +62 to −9 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +27.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to −11.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $269.45 to $270.47. It’s at −9.2 now.−9.7 from volume and +0.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:50 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our AON record what it is? What’s the $310 wall?