ARCB ARCB
$128.18 · scored 02:01 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 29/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 29/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+31.8 composite
Evidence
29 / 100 · top 97% today
5 contracts · quality 37 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −0.12% · n=66,298
What traded today · weight 62%
+37.2 pts
4 calls · 80.0% 1 puts
bias +60.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−5.4 pts
18 call OI · 42.9% 24 put OI
bias −14.3 × 0.38
Equals
+31.8
87% of the score comes from today’s volume, 13% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring ARCB today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 29 (3th pct) · quality 37 · 5 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.12% avg, n=66,298
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on ARCB
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $128.18 highlighted. The $100 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 11).
05 Our record on ARCB Proof 21 Oct · 4h
$128.18 → $128.18
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
ARCB
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+31.8 evidence
hasn’t paid −0.12% · n=66,298
Why it’s +32
+37.2 volume · 80% calls−5.4 OI · 43% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 29 (3th pct) · quality 37 · 5 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.12% avg, n=66,298
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on ARCB
What traded today · 62%
+37.2 pts
4 calls · 1 puts · bias +60.0
What’s on the books · 38%
−5.4 pts
18 call OI · 24 put OI · bias −14.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
21 Oct · 4h
$128.18 → $128.18
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $100 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ARCB
Not enough tape history on ARCB for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our ARCB record what it is? What’s the $100 wall?