ARCC ARCC
$18.60 · scored 09:02 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 59/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 59/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+4.9 composite
Evidence
59 / 100 · top 35% today
1,718 contracts · quality 78 · stability 0.00
neutral · −1.18% · n=1,528
What traded today · weight 62%
+13.5 pts
1,046 calls · 60.9% 672 puts
bias +21.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−8.6 pts
53,786 call OI · 38.7% 85,342 put OI
bias −22.7 × 0.38
Equals
+4.9
61% of the score comes from today’s volume, 39% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring ARCC today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (65th pct) · quality 78 · 1,718 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 57
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.18% avg, n=1,528
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on ARCC
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $18.60 highlighted. The $20 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 28,173). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on ARCC Proof We haven’t checked a call on ARCC yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
ARCC
Neutral, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+4.9 evidence
neutral · −1.18% · n=1,528
Why it’s +5
+13.5 volume · 61% calls−8.6 OI · 39% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (65th pct) · quality 78 · 1,718 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 57
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.18% avg, n=1,528
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on ARCC
What traded today · 62%
+13.5 pts
1,046 calls · 672 puts · bias +21.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−8.6 pts
53,786 call OI · 85,342 put OI · bias −22.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $20 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ARCC
Not enough tape history on ARCC for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our ARCC record what it is? What’s the $20 wall?