ARM Arm Holdings PLC
$266.28 · +0.00% vs $266.28 close · scored 13:56 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 67/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−6.8 composite−20.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
67 / 100 · top 19% today
37,137 contracts · quality 82
neutral · −0.53% · n=4,464
What traded today · weight 62%
−7.7 pts
16,253 calls · 43.8% 20,884 puts
bias −12.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+0.9 pts
78,039 call OI · 51.2% 74,314 put OI
bias +2.4 × 0.38
Equals
−6.8
89% of the score comes from today’s volume, 11% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +0.37% · tape −32.0 · corr 0.04
◆ −41.5 in a day ● peak +57 ▼ low −6.8 08-30 09-06 09-13 09-20 09-27 10-04 10-11 $333 $235 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 0.37% while the tape has faded 32.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 82 · 37,137 contracts
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.53% avg, n=4,464
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ARM’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on ARM is poor 31% hit rate on 520 closed calls · payoff 1.70×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $266.28 highlighted. The $350 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 7,423). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
10 Oct · 4h
$265.93 → $265.93
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$266.28 → $265.93
−0.13% hit
10 Oct · 4h
$266.28 → $266.28
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$266.28 → $266.28
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 276 of these 520 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 309.52 · fwd 127.19 Beta 3.785
52w $100.02–$452.70 IV rank —
Ask about ARM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +14 to −7 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +21.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to +10.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $295.15 to $294.37. It’s at −6.8 now.−7.7 from volume and +0.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 13:56 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our ARM record what it is? What’s the $350 wall?
What our data projects
+0.88 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#7 of 724 · helped by confidence, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $350 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Arm Holdings PLC · Semiconductors
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−6.8 evidence
neutral · −0.53% · n=4,464
Why it’s −7
−7.7 volume · 44% calls+0.9 OI · 51% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −41.5 08-30 09-06 09-13 09-20 09-27 10-04 10-11 $333 $235 Price +0.37%, tape −32.0 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 82 · 37,137 contracts
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.53% avg, n=4,464
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ARM’s tape by 3 days (r=-0.26, n=45)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−7.7 pts
16,253 calls · 20,884 puts · bias −12.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+0.9 pts
78,039 call OI · 74,314 put OI · bias +2.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +0.37% · tape −32.0 · corr 0.04
◆ −41.5 in a day ● peak +57 ▼ low −6.8 08-30 09-06 09-13 09-20 09-27 10-04 10-11 $333 $235 Over 30 days, price has risen 0.37% while the tape has faded 32.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
31% hit rate · 520 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$265.93 → $265.93
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$266.28 → $265.93
−0.13% hit
10 Oct · 4h
$266.28 → $266.28
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$266.28 → $266.28
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $350 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ARM
Why did the score drop from +14 to −7 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +21.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to +10.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $295.15 to $294.37. It’s at −6.8 now.−7.7 from volume and +0.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 46 pts stock_scores · 13:56 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our ARM record what it is? What’s the $350 wall?