BB BlackBerry Ltd
$8.91 · +3.01% vs $8.65 close · scored 15:07 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 75/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 75/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+43.5 composite┆ +43.5 yesterday (+0.0) −26.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
75 / 100 · top 8% today
6,643 contracts · quality 90 · stability 0.85
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+25.9 pts
4,710 calls · 70.9% 1,933 puts
bias +41.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+17.6 pts
78,025 call OI · 73.1% 28,659 put OI
bias +46.3 × 0.38
Equals
+43.5
60% of the score comes from today’s volume, 40% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +14.97% · tape −9.8 · corr 0.44
● peak +70 ◆ +15.0 in a day ▼ low +43.5 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $9 $8 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 14.97% while the tape has faded 9.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 75 (92th pct) · quality 90 · 6,643 contracts
pass Stable 0.85 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
pass Tape has led price tape has led BB’s price by 3 days (r=0.17, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on BB is poor 8% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 0.59×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $8.91 highlighted. The $9 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 25,730). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$8.91 → $8.91
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$8.78 → $8.91
+1.54% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$9.27 → $8.91
−3.88% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$8.79 → $8.91
+1.42% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1652 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 88.97 · fwd 40.99 Beta 1.105
52w $4.35–$18.45 IV rank —
Ask about BB answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +70 to +44 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +70.3 on 3 Oct, then fell to +59.2 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $9.30 to $9.30. It’s at +43.5 now.+25.9 from volume and +17.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:07 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our BB record what it is? What’s the $9 wall?
What our data projects
+1.04 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#1 of 635 · helped by quality, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $9 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
BlackBerry Ltd · Technology
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+43.5 ┆ +43.5 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +44
+25.9 volume · 71% calls+17.6 OI · 73% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +15.0 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $9 $8 Price +14.97%, tape −9.8 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 75 (92th pct) · quality 90 · 6,643 contracts
pass Stable 0.85 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+25.9 pts
4,710 calls · 1,933 puts · bias +41.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+17.6 pts
78,025 call OI · 28,659 put OI · bias +46.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +14.97% · tape −9.8 · corr 0.44
● peak +70 ◆ +15.0 in a day ▼ low +43.5 09-27 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-09 10-10 $9 $8 Over 30 days, price has risen 14.97% while the tape has faded 9.8 points. The two are drifting apart.
8% hit rate · 2000 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$8.91 → $8.91
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$8.78 → $8.91
+1.54% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$9.27 → $8.91
−3.88% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$8.79 → $8.91
+1.42% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $9 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about BB
Why did the score drop from +70 to +44 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +70.3 on 3 Oct, then fell to +59.2 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $9.30 to $9.30. It’s at +43.5 now.+25.9 from volume and +17.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:07 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our BB record what it is? What’s the $9 wall?