BEKE

KE Holdings Inc

$17.09 · +4.02% vs $16.43 close · scored 00:57 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 53/100

What changed

No prior comparable read.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 53/100

For the read

options volume favours puts

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low

The read

Neutral, moderately evidenced, and the tape has led price here.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+2.2 composite−63.2 vs a week ago

Evidence

53 / 100 · top 56% today

333 contracts · quality 69 · stability 0.00

neutral · +9.94% · n=4,567

Why it’s +2

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−18.4 pts

117 calls · 35.1%216 puts

bias −29.7 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+20.6 pts

32,241 call OI · 77.1%9,578 put OI

bias +54.2 × 0.38

Equals

+2.2

47% of the score comes from today’s volume, 53% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 43 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −8.31% · tape +23.0 · corr -0.42

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.31% while the tape has firmed 23.0 points. The two are drifting apart.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 53 (44th pct) · quality 69 · 333 contracts

note

Jumpy

0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · put-heavy · low liquidity → +9.94% avg, n=4,567

pass

Tape has led price

tape has led BEKE’s price by 2 days (r=0.24, n=48)

note

Stretched vs its own history

today’s tape sits low relative to price

against

Our record on BEKE is poor

30% hit rate on 601 closed calls · payoff 1.59×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$23

$22.5

$22

$21.5

$21

$20

$19

$18

WALL · OI 15,798

$17.5

$17

$16.5

$16

$15.5

$15

$14

$13.5

$13

$12

$11

Spot $17.09 highlighted. The $18 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 15,798). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on BEKE

Proof

30%

hit rate · 601 closed

1.59×

payoff

+0.18%

avg return

8 Oct · 4h

$17.09 → $17.09

+0.00%flat

4 Oct · 4h

$16.43 → $16.43

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$16.42 → $16.42

+0.00%flat

2 Oct · 4h

$16.64 → $16.64

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 274 of these 601 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

−0.08%Q3 ’25

−23.82%Q4 ’25

−12.79%Q1 ’26

+24.02%Q2 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report 24 Aug P/E 26.79 · fwd 13.09Beta 1.141 52w $35.38–$52.90IV rank —