BTU BTU
$23.46 · scored 07:59 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 47/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 47/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−36.0 composite
Evidence
47 / 100 · top 58% today
3,415 contracts · quality 72 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
What traded today · weight 62%
−22.3 pts
1,093 calls · 32.0% 2,322 puts
bias −36.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
No open interest stored for today’s chain.
Equals
−36.0
100% of the score comes from today’s volume, 0% from open interest. Smoothing and calibration add −13.7. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring BTU today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 47 (42th pct) · quality 72 · 3,415 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 29
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=15,572
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on BTU
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $23.46 highlighted. The $15 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 0). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
We haven’t checked a call on BTU yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
BTU
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−36.0 evidence
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
Why it’s −36
−22.3 volume · 32% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 47 (42th pct) · quality 72 · 3,415 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 29
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on BTU
What traded today · 62%
−22.3 pts
1,093 calls · 2,322 puts · bias −36.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $15 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about BTU
Not enough tape history on BTU for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our BTU record what it is? What’s the $15 wall?