CCL Carnival Corp
$26.13 · +0.00% vs $26.13 close · scored 14:23 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 77/100
What changed
Composite weakened 29.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 77/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+27.8 composite┆ +57.3 yesterday (−29.4) −15.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
77 / 100 · top 5% today
10,327 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.82
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+19.3 pts
6,768 calls · 65.5% 3,559 puts
bias +31.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+8.6 pts
115,048 call OI · 61.3% 72,712 put OI
bias +22.5 × 0.38
Equals
+27.8
69% of the score comes from today’s volume, 31% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +12.63% · tape +10.6 · corr 0.40
▼ low −54.2 ◆ −91.0 in a day ● peak +62 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $26 $22 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 12.63% while the tape has firmed 10.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 77 (95th pct) · quality 89 · 10,327 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CCL’s tape by 3 days (r=0.18, n=50)
against Our record on CCL is poor 20% hit rate on 694 closed calls · payoff 1.05×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $26.13 highlighted. The $25 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 27,992). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 347 of these 694 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 11.38 · fwd 8.79 Beta 2.486
52w $21.45–$34.03 IV rank —
Ask about CCL answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +43 to +28 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +49.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +27.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $25.76 to $26.36. It’s at +27.8 now.+19.3 from volume and +8.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 14:23 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our CCL record what it is? What’s the $25 wall?
What our data projects
+0.61 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#40 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $25 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Carnival Corp · Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+27.8 ┆ +57.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +28
+19.3 volume · 66% calls+8.6 OI · 61% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −91.0 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $26 $22 Price +12.63%, tape +10.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 77 (95th pct) · quality 89 · 10,327 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CCL’s tape by 3 days (r=0.18, n=50)
What traded today · 62%
+19.3 pts
6,768 calls · 3,559 puts · bias +31.1
What’s on the books · 38%
+8.6 pts
115,048 call OI · 72,712 put OI · bias +22.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +12.63% · tape +10.6 · corr 0.40
▼ low −54.2 ◆ −91.0 in a day ● peak +62 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $26 $22 Over 30 days, price has risen 12.63% while the tape has firmed 10.6 points. They agree.
20% hit rate · 694 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$26.13 → $26.13
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $25 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CCL
Why did the score drop from +43 to +28 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +49.5 on 7 Oct, then fell to +27.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $25.76 to $26.36. It’s at +27.8 now.+19.3 from volume and +8.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 14:23 method · 62/38
Compare with MCD Why is our CCL record what it is? What’s the $25 wall?