CI Cigna Group
$282.00 · +0.35% vs $281.03 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 66/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−19.7 composite┆ −18.9 yesterday (−0.8) −28.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 23% today
650 contracts · quality 83 · stability 0.75
hasn’t paid +6.73% · n=3,432
What traded today · weight 62%
−7.4 pts
286 calls · 44.0% 364 puts
bias −12.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−12.3 pts
6,267 call OI · 33.9% 12,239 put OI
bias −32.3 × 0.38
Equals
−19.7
38% of the score comes from today’s volume, 62% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.89% · tape −25.3 · corr 0.37
● peak +58 ◆ −67.2 in a day ▼ low −29.3 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $290 $265 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 1.89% while the tape has faded 25.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (77th pct) · quality 83 · 650 contracts
note Jumpy 0.75 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · balanced · low liquidity → +6.73% avg, n=3,432
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CI’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.30, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on CI is poor 24% hit rate on 403 closed calls · payoff 0.59×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $282.00 highlighted. The $260 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 4,174). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$282.00 → $282.00
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.03 → $282.00
+0.35% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$281.03 → $282.00
+0.35% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$281.03 → $282.00
+0.35% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 171 of these 403 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 11.07 · fwd 8.39 Beta 0.258
52w $239.51–$315.47 IV rank —
Ask about CI answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +9 to −20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +16.3 on 7 Oct, then fell to −18.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $271.29 to $278.51. It’s at −19.7 now.−7.4 from volume and −12.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our CI record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?
What our data projects
−0.27 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#472 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Cigna Group · Health Care
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−19.7 ┆ −18.9 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +6.73% · n=3,432
Why it’s −20
−7.4 volume · 44% calls−12.3 OI · 34% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −67.2 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $290 $265 Price +1.89%, tape −25.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (77th pct) · quality 83 · 650 contracts
note Jumpy 0.75 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · balanced · low liquidity → +6.73% avg, n=3,432
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led CI’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.30, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−7.4 pts
286 calls · 364 puts · bias −12.0
What’s on the books · 38%
−12.3 pts
6,267 call OI · 12,239 put OI · bias −32.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.89% · tape −25.3 · corr 0.37
● peak +58 ◆ −67.2 in a day ▼ low −29.3 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-18 09-25 10-02 10-09 $290 $265 Over 30 days, price has risen 1.89% while the tape has faded 25.3 points. The two are drifting apart.
24% hit rate · 403 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$282.00 → $282.00
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$281.03 → $282.00
+0.35% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$281.03 → $282.00
+0.35% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$281.03 → $282.00
+0.35% miss
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $260 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about CI
Why did the score drop from +9 to −20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +16.3 on 7 Oct, then fell to −18.8 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $271.29 to $278.51. It’s at −19.7 now.−7.4 from volume and −12.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our CI record what it is? What’s the $260 wall?