ELV Elevance Health Inc
$396.88 · +2.70% vs $386.43 close · scored 18:17 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 44/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 44/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−53.0 composite−82.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
44 / 100 · top 74% today
233 contracts · quality 64 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
What traded today · weight 62%
−55.6 pts
12 calls · 5.2% 221 puts
bias −89.7 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+2.6 pts
4,112 call OI · 53.4% 3,588 put OI
bias +6.8 × 0.38
Equals
−53.0
96% of the score comes from today’s volume, 4% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.61% · tape −51.5 · corr 0.46
◆ −98.6 in a day ● peak +63 ▼ low −53.0 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $423 $382 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.61% while the tape has faded 51.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 44 (26th pct) · quality 64 · 233 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
note Our record on ELV is mixed 37% hit rate on 364 closed calls · payoff 2.43×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $396.88 highlighted. The $380 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,399).
6 Oct · 4h
$396.88 → $396.88
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$386.43 → $386.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$386.43 → $386.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$387.78 → $387.78
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 169 of these 364 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 16.91 · fwd 13.95 Beta 0.645
52w $274.84–$436.24 IV rank —
Ask about ELV answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +42 to −53 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +42.1 on 30 Sep, then fell to −44.5 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $414.97 to $388.82. It’s at −53.0 now.−55.6 from volume and +2.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 18:17 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our ELV record what it is? What’s the $380 wall?
What our data projects
−0.71 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#623 of 635 · helped by tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $380 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Elevance Health Inc · Health Care
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−53.0 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.10% · n=21,921
Why it’s −53
−55.6 volume · 5% calls+2.6 OI · 53% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −98.6 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $423 $382 Price −2.61%, tape −51.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 44 (26th pct) · quality 64 · 233 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.10% avg, n=21,921
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=43)
What traded today · 62%
−55.6 pts
12 calls · 221 puts · bias −89.7
What’s on the books · 38%
+2.6 pts
4,112 call OI · 3,588 put OI · bias +6.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −2.61% · tape −51.5 · corr 0.46
◆ −98.6 in a day ● peak +63 ▼ low −53.0 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-23 09-30 10-10 $423 $382 Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.61% while the tape has faded 51.5 points. They agree.
37% hit rate · 364 closed
6 Oct · 4h
$396.88 → $396.88
+0.00% flat
4 Oct · 4h
$386.43 → $386.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$386.43 → $386.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$387.78 → $387.78
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $380 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ELV
Why did the score drop from +42 to −53 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +42.1 on 30 Sep, then fell to −44.5 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $414.97 to $388.82. It’s at −53.0 now.−55.6 from volume and +2.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 18:17 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our ELV record what it is? What’s the $380 wall?