ESS Essex Property Trust Inc
$270.93 · +0.87% vs $268.58 close · scored 15:46 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 59/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 59/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+40.1 composite┆ +40.1 yesterday (+0.0) +64.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
59 / 100 · top 40% today
290 contracts · quality 79 · stability 0.71
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
What traded today · weight 62%
+14.5 pts
179 calls · 61.7% 111 puts
bias +23.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+25.6 pts
2,071 call OI · 83.7% 404 put OI
bias +67.4 × 0.38
Equals
+40.1
36% of the score comes from today’s volume, 64% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.18% · tape −28.3 · corr -0.06
● peak +85 ◆ −108.0 in a day ▼ low −23.9 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $273 $268 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.18% while the tape has faded 28.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 79 · 290 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ESS’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.21, n=44)
against Our record on ESS is poor 18% hit rate on 403 closed calls · payoff 1.58×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $270.93 highlighted. The $280 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 538). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$270.93 → $270.93
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$268.58 → $270.93
+0.87% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$268.58 → $270.93
+0.87% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$268.58 → $270.93
+0.87% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 213 of these 403 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 41.72 · fwd 45.05 Beta 0.706
52w $238.46–$303.35 IV rank —
Ask about ESS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −24 to +40 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −23.9 on 3 Oct, then rose to +49.3 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $269.10 to $268.65. It’s at +40.1 now.+14.5 from volume and +25.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our ESS record what it is? What’s the $280 wall?
What our data projects
−0.59 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#600 of 635. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $280 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Essex Property Trust Inc · Real Estate
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+40.1 ┆ +40.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −0.01% · n=92,310
Why it’s +40
+14.5 volume · 62% calls+25.6 OI · 84% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −108.0 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $273 $268 Price −3.18%, tape −28.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 59 (60th pct) · quality 79 · 290 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −0.01% avg, n=92,310
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ESS’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.21, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+14.5 pts
179 calls · 111 puts · bias +23.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+25.6 pts
2,071 call OI · 404 put OI · bias +67.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.18% · tape −28.3 · corr -0.06
● peak +85 ◆ −108.0 in a day ▼ low −23.9 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $273 $268 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.18% while the tape has faded 28.3 points. They agree.
18% hit rate · 403 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$270.93 → $270.93
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$268.58 → $270.93
+0.87% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$268.58 → $270.93
+0.87% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$268.58 → $270.93
+0.87% hit
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $280 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ESS
Why did the score rise from −24 to +40 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −23.9 on 3 Oct, then rose to +49.3 on 4 Oct as the price moved from $269.10 to $268.65. It’s at +40.1 now.+14.5 from volume and +25.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:46 method · 62/38
Compare with OPEN Why is our ESS record what it is? What’s the $280 wall?