FDX FedEx Corp
$290.99 · −0.31% vs $291.90 close · scored 15:43 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 66/100
What changed
Composite weakened 1.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+16.9 composite┆ +18.3 yesterday (−1.4) +16.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 22% today
2,600 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.71
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.6 pts
1,565 calls · 60.2% 1,035 puts
bias +20.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+4.3 pts
10,195 call OI · 55.6% 8,128 put OI
bias +11.3 × 0.38
Equals
+16.9
75% of the score comes from today’s volume, 25% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.08% · tape −13.3 · corr 0.32
● peak +65 ▼ low −43.1 ◆ −73.2 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $331 $280 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.08% while the tape has faded 13.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 82 · 2,600 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led FDX’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.37, n=44)
against Our record on FDX is poor 28% hit rate on 436 closed calls · payoff 1.02×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $290.99 highlighted. The $290 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,754). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$290.99 → $290.99
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$291.73 → $290.99
−0.25% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$291.73 → $290.99
−0.25% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$291.73 → $290.99
−0.25% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 167 of these 436 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 15.50 · fwd 14.99 Beta 1.308
52w $180.99–$345.37 IV rank —
Ask about FDX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +11 to +17 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +2.1 on 6 Oct, then rose to +19.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $287.53 to $287.53. It’s at +16.9 now.+12.6 from volume and +4.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with UPS Why is our FDX record what it is? What’s the $290 wall?
What our data projects
−0.22 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#428 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $290 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
FedEx Corp · Logistics & Transportation
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+16.9 ┆ +18.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +17
+12.6 volume · 60% calls+4.3 OI · 56% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −73.2 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $331 $280 Price −7.08%, tape −13.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 82 · 2,600 contracts
note Jumpy 0.71 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led FDX’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.37, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+12.6 pts
1,565 calls · 1,035 puts · bias +20.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+4.3 pts
10,195 call OI · 8,128 put OI · bias +11.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −7.08% · tape −13.3 · corr 0.32
● peak +65 ▼ low −43.1 ◆ −73.2 in a day 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $331 $280 Over 30 days, price has fallen 7.08% while the tape has faded 13.3 points. They agree.
28% hit rate · 436 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$290.99 → $290.99
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$291.73 → $290.99
−0.25% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$291.73 → $290.99
−0.25% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$291.73 → $290.99
−0.25% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $290 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about FDX
Why did the score rise from +11 to +17 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +2.1 on 6 Oct, then rose to +19.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $287.53 to $287.53. It’s at +16.9 now.+12.6 from volume and +4.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:43 method · 62/38
Compare with UPS Why is our FDX record what it is? What’s the $290 wall?