HUM Humana Inc
$387.12 · −11.32% vs $436.56 close · scored 12:17 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 66/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 66/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−4.1 composite−7.5 vs a week ago
Evidence
66 / 100 · top 22% today
33,427 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
What traded today · weight 62%
−5.9 pts
15,117 calls · 45.2% 18,310 puts
bias −9.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+1.8 pts
50,301 call OI · 52.4% 45,684 put OI
bias +4.8 × 0.38
Equals
−4.1
76% of the score comes from today’s volume, 24% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +8.30% · tape +14.8 · corr -0.27
◆ +82.2 in a day ▼ low −48.0 ● peak +49 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $437 $371 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 8.30% while the tape has firmed 14.8 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 82 · 33,427 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=44)
against Our record on HUM is poor 25% hit rate on 395 closed calls · payoff 0.58×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $387.12 highlighted. The $470 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 11,130). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 164 of these 395 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 37.46 · fwd 25.49 Beta 0.675
52w $163.11–$428.88 IV rank —
Ask about HUM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +3 to −4 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +3.4 on 7 Oct, then fell to −6.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $383.10 to $396.51. It’s at −4.1 now.−5.9 from volume and +1.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:17 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our HUM record what it is? What’s the $470 wall?
What our data projects
+0.46 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#70 of 635 · helped by tape composite, last day's move, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $470 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Humana Inc · Health Care
Neutral, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−4.1 evidence
neutral · −0.51% · n=4,671
Why it’s −4
−5.9 volume · 45% calls+1.8 OI · 52% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +82.2 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $437 $371 Price +8.30%, tape +14.8 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 66 (78th pct) · quality 82 · 33,427 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 66
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · mid liquidity → −0.51% avg, n=4,671
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
−5.9 pts
15,117 calls · 18,310 puts · bias −9.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+1.8 pts
50,301 call OI · 45,684 put OI · bias +4.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +8.30% · tape +14.8 · corr -0.27
◆ +82.2 in a day ▼ low −48.0 ● peak +49 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-25 10-02 10-09 $437 $371 Over 30 days, price has risen 8.30% while the tape has firmed 14.8 points. They agree.
25% hit rate · 395 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$387.12 → $387.12
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $470 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about HUM
Why did the score drop from +3 to −4 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +3.4 on 7 Oct, then fell to −6.2 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $383.10 to $396.51. It’s at −4.1 now.−5.9 from volume and +1.8 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:17 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our HUM record what it is? What’s the $470 wall?