IBM International Business Machines Corp
$222.64 · +0.00% vs $222.64 close · scored 10:27 · fresh
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 71/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 71/100
For the read
evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+13.2 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
71 / 100 · top 13% today
41,118 contracts · quality 82 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.08% · n=2,328
What traded today · weight 62%
+5.0 pts
22,211 calls · 54.0% 18,907 puts
bias +8.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+8.2 pts
99,153 call OI · 60.8% 63,927 put OI
bias +21.6 × 0.38
Equals
+13.2
38% of the score comes from today’s volume, 62% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.07% · tape −41.3 · corr 0.70
◆ −35.7 in a day ● peak +59 ▼ low +13.2 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-08 10-10 $249 $220 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.07% while the tape has faded 41.3 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 82 · 41,118 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.08% avg, n=2,328
pass Tape has led price tape has led IBM’s price by 3 days (r=0.34, n=50)
against Our record on IBM is poor 29% hit rate on 772 closed calls · payoff 1.95×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $222.64. The $235 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 16,074). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
3 Oct · 4h
$222.64 → $222.64
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$227.25 → $227.25
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$225.62 → $225.62
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$227.94 → $227.94
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 380 of these 772 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 19.57 · fwd 17.91 Beta 0.790
52w $199.19–$332.46 IV rank —
Ask about IBM answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +22 to +13 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +21.6 on 2 Oct, then fell to +13.2 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $225.62 to $222.64. It’s at +13.2 now.+5.0 from volume and +8.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 10:27 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our IBM record what it is? What’s the $235 wall?
What our data projects
+0.05 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#242 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $235 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
International Business Machines Corp · Technology
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+13.2 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.08% · n=2,328
Why it’s +13
+5.0 volume · 54% calls+8.2 OI · 61% calls
51 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −35.7 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-08 10-10 $249 $220 Price −4.07%, tape −41.3 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 71 (87th pct) · quality 82 · 41,118 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 39
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.08% avg, n=2,328
against Our record on IBM is poor 29% hit rate on 772 closed calls · payoff 1.95×
What traded today · 62%
+5.0 pts
22,211 calls · 18,907 puts · bias +8.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+8.2 pts
99,153 call OI · 63,927 put OI · bias +21.6
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −4.07% · tape −41.3 · corr 0.70
◆ −35.7 in a day ● peak +59 ▼ low +13.2 08-19 08-27 09-04 09-12 09-21 09-29 10-08 10-10 $249 $220 Over 30 days, price has fallen 4.07% while the tape has faded 41.3 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
29% hit rate · 772 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$222.64 → $222.64
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$227.25 → $227.25
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$225.62 → $225.62
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$227.94 → $227.94
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $235 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about IBM
Why did the score drop from +22 to +13 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +21.6 on 2 Oct, then fell to +13.2 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $225.62 to $222.64. It’s at +13.2 now.+5.0 from volume and +8.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 51 pts stock_scores · 10:27 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our IBM record what it is? What’s the $235 wall?