INVH
Invitation Homes Inc
$25.86 · +0.00% vs $25.86 close · scored 02:49 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 42/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 40.9 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 42/100
For the read
open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced, and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+96.2 composite┆ +55.3 yesterday (+40.9)+22.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
42 / 100 · top 77% today
0 contracts · quality 29 · stability 0.67
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
No call/put volume stored for today, so the score can’t be split.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −8.91% · tape +89.5 · corr -0.32
Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.91% while the tape has firmed 89.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidenceconfidence 42 (23th pct) · quality 29 · 0 contracts
noteJumpy0.67 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
passThis kind of read has paidstrongly bullish · balanced · low liquidity → +31.94% avg, n=11,250
passTape has led pricetape has led INVH’s price by 1 day (r=0.28, n=43)
noteStretched vs its own historytoday’s tape sits high relative to price
againstOur record on INVH is poor9% hit rate on 345 closed calls · payoff 0.67×
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $25.86 highlighted. The $30 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,944). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05Our record on INVH
Proof
8 Oct · 4h
$25.86 → $25.86
+0.00%flat
3 Oct · 4h
$26.02 → $26.02
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$26.40 → $26.40
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$26.40 → $26.40
+0.00%flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 217 of these 345 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaningNext report —
P/E 23.28 · fwd 34.16Beta 0.825
52w $24.25–$30.89IV rank —
Invitation Homes Inc · Real Estate
Strongly bullish, thinly evidenced. The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+96.2┆ +55.3 ydayevidence 42
has paid +31.94% · n=11,250
43 days · tape bars, price line
Price −8.91%, tape +89.5 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidence
confidence 42 (23th pct) · quality 29 · 0 contracts
noteJumpy
0.67 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
noteStretched vs its own history
today’s tape sits high relative to price
againstOur record on INVH is poor
9% hit rate on 345 closed calls · payoff 0.67×
No call/put volume stored for today.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −8.91% · tape +89.5 · corr -0.32
Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.91% while the tape has firmed 89.5 points. The two are drifting apart.
9% hit rate · 345 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$25.86 → $25.86
+0.00%flat
3 Oct · 4h
$26.02 → $26.02
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$26.40 → $26.40
+0.00%flat
2 Oct · 4h
$26.40 → $26.40
+0.00%flat
The read flips to bearishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $30 wallprice · above
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about INVH
Why did the score rise from +10 to +96 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +9.9 on 30 Sep, then rose to +74.2 on 1 Oct as the price moved from $26.62 to $26.40. It’s at +96.2 now.
tape_history · 44 ptsstock_scores · 02:49method · 62/38