IREN IREN Ltd
$38.69 · +0.00% vs $38.69 close · scored 11:28 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 58/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 58/100
For the read
options volume favours calls
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.8 composite+7.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
58 / 100 · top 42% today
138,661 contracts · quality 76 · stability 0.00
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.3 pts
83,049 calls · 59.9% 55,612 puts
bias +19.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
No open interest stored for today’s chain.
Equals
+19.8
100% of the score comes from today’s volume, 0% from open interest. Smoothing and calibration add +7.5. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.41% · tape +4.9 · corr 0.19
▼ low −0.3 ● peak +43 ◆ −34.0 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $48 $35 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.41% while the tape has barely moved (+4.9). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (58th pct) · quality 76 · 138,661 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 29
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.05% avg, n=9,329
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=49)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on IREN is poor 32% hit rate on 752 closed calls · payoff 5.35×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $38.69 highlighted. The $18 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 0). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on IREN Proof 8 Oct · 4h
$38.69 → $36.94
−4.52% miss
5 Oct · 4h
$41.94 → $41.94
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$41.62 → $41.62
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$40.65 → $40.65
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 361 of these 752 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 207.66 · fwd 183.72 Beta 4.281
52w $28.93–$76.87 IV rank —
Ask about IREN answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +12 to +20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +11.7 on 4 Oct, then rose to +25.6 on 5 Oct as the price moved from $41.62 to $41.94. It’s at +19.8 now.+12.3 from volume. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 11:28 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our IREN record what it is? What’s the $18 wall?
What our data projects
+0.64 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#38 of 635 · helped by price momentum (5 days), last day's move, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $18 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
IREN Ltd · Technology
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+19.8 evidence
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
Why it’s +20
+12.3 volume · 60% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −34.0 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $48 $35 Price −13.41%, tape +4.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 58 (58th pct) · quality 76 · 138,661 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 29
note No reliable lead enough history exists, but no tape/price lead clears the reliability threshold (r=0.00, n=49)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+12.3 pts
83,049 calls · 55,612 puts · bias +19.8
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −13.41% · tape +4.9 · corr 0.19
▼ low −0.3 ● peak +43 ◆ −34.0 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $48 $35 Over 30 days, price has fallen 13.41% while the tape has barely moved (+4.9). The two are drifting apart.
32% hit rate · 752 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$38.69 → $36.94
−4.52% miss
5 Oct · 4h
$41.94 → $41.94
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$41.62 → $41.62
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$40.65 → $40.65
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $18 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about IREN
Why did the score rise from +12 to +20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +11.7 on 4 Oct, then rose to +25.6 on 5 Oct as the price moved from $41.62 to $41.94. It’s at +19.8 now.+12.3 from volume. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 11:28 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our IREN record what it is? What’s the $18 wall?