ISRG Intuitive Surgical Inc
$415.41 · +0.07% vs $415.10 close · scored 12:25 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 65/100
What changed
Composite weakened 26.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 65/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.0 composite┆ +40.1 yesterday (−26.1) +7.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
65 / 100 · top 25% today
2,644 contracts · quality 88 · stability 0.86
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.0 pts
1,577 calls · 59.6% 1,067 puts
bias +19.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+2.1 pts
15,241 call OI · 52.7% 13,660 put OI
bias +5.5 × 0.38
Equals
+14.0
85% of the score comes from today’s volume, 15% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +18.55% · tape −4.3 · corr 0.11
▼ low −12.2 ◆ −32.6 in a day ● peak +24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $415 $367 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 18.55% while the tape has barely moved (−4.3). The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 88 · 2,644 contracts
pass Stable 0.86 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ISRG’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.24, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on ISRG is poor 21% hit rate on 391 closed calls · payoff 0.61×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $415.41 highlighted. The $415 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,774). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on ISRG Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 168 of these 391 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 45.75 · fwd 34.27 Beta 1.457
52w $328.57–$603.88 IV rank —
Ask about ISRG answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +6 to +14 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −2.1 on 7 Oct, then rose to +14.3 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $391.95 to $411.81. It’s at +14.0 now.+12.0 from volume and +2.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:25 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our ISRG record what it is? What’s the $415 wall?
What our data projects
−0.30 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#490 of 635 · helped by quality, tape composite, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $415 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Intuitive Surgical Inc · Health Care
Mildly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.0 ┆ +40.1 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.11% · n=9,499
Why it’s +14
+12.0 volume · 60% calls+2.1 OI · 53% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −32.6 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $415 $367 Price +18.55%, tape −4.3 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 88 · 2,644 contracts
pass Stable 0.86 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · low liquidity → −1.11% avg, n=9,499
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ISRG’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.24, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+12.0 pts
1,577 calls · 1,067 puts · bias +19.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+2.1 pts
15,241 call OI · 13,660 put OI · bias +5.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +18.55% · tape −4.3 · corr 0.11
▼ low −12.2 ◆ −32.6 in a day ● peak +24 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $415 $367 Over 30 days, price has risen 18.55% while the tape has barely moved (−4.3). The two are drifting apart.
21% hit rate · 391 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$415.41 → $415.41
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $415 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ISRG
Why did the score rise from +6 to +14 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −2.1 on 7 Oct, then rose to +14.3 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $391.95 to $411.81. It’s at +14.0 now.+12.0 from volume and +2.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 12:25 method · 62/38
Compare with MDT Why is our ISRG record what it is? What’s the $415 wall?