ITW Illinois Tool Works Inc
$262.42 · −0.87% vs $264.71 close · scored 15:48 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 67/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 67/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+82.0 composite+74.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
67 / 100 · top 19% today
5,495 contracts · quality 78 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+57.9 pts
5,315 calls · 96.7% 180 puts
bias +93.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+24.0 pts
6,148 call OI · 81.6% 1,385 put OI
bias +63.2 × 0.38
Equals
+82.0
71% of the score comes from today’s volume, 29% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.48% · tape +90.0 · corr 0.13
◆ −77.1 in a day ▼ low −30.2 ● peak +82 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $282 $257 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.48% while the tape has firmed 90.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 78 · 5,495 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ITW’s tape by 1 day (r=0.25, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on ITW is poor 27% hit rate on 384 closed calls · payoff 0.47×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $262.42 highlighted. The $280 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,795). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$262.42 → $262.42
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$262.15 → $262.42
+0.10% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$264.71 → $262.42
−0.87% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$264.71 → $262.42
−0.87% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 215 of these 384 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 23.94 · fwd 22.32 Beta 0.965
52w $238.82–$303.16 IV rank —
Ask about ITW answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +8 to +82 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +19.9 on 5 Oct, then rose to +82.0 on 6 Oct as the price moved from $262.92 to $262.92. It’s at +82.0 now.+57.9 from volume and +24.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with DOV Why is our ITW record what it is? What’s the $280 wall?
What our data projects
+0.18 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#180 of 635 · helped by call/put volume tilt, price momentum (5 days), last day's move. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $280 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Illinois Tool Works Inc · Machinery
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+82.0 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +82
+57.9 volume · 97% calls+24.0 OI · 82% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −77.1 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $282 $257 Price −1.48%, tape +90.0 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 67 (81th pct) · quality 78 · 5,495 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led ITW’s tape by 1 day (r=0.25, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+57.9 pts
5,315 calls · 180 puts · bias +93.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+24.0 pts
6,148 call OI · 1,385 put OI · bias +63.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.48% · tape +90.0 · corr 0.13
◆ −77.1 in a day ▼ low −30.2 ● peak +82 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $282 $257 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.48% while the tape has firmed 90.0 points. The two are drifting apart.
27% hit rate · 384 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$262.42 → $262.42
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$262.15 → $262.42
+0.10% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$264.71 → $262.42
−0.87% miss
9 Oct · 4h
$264.71 → $262.42
−0.87% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $280 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about ITW
Why did the score rise from +8 to +82 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +19.9 on 5 Oct, then rose to +82.0 on 6 Oct as the price moved from $262.92 to $262.92. It’s at +82.0 now.+57.9 from volume and +24.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:48 method · 62/38
Compare with DOV Why is our ITW record what it is? What’s the $280 wall?