LRCX Lam Research Corp
$319.70 · −0.04% vs $319.82 close · scored 15:49 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 79/100
What changed
Composite weakened 23.5 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 79/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bearish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−53.0 composite┆ −29.5 yesterday (−23.5) −55.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
79 / 100 · top 4% today
28,715 contracts · quality 90 · stability 0.81
has paid −0.37% · n=3,867
What traded today · weight 62%
−46.9 pts
3,499 calls · 12.2% 25,216 puts
bias −75.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−6.1 pts
57,817 call OI · 42.0% 79,818 put OI
bias −16.0 × 0.38
Equals
−53.0
89% of the score comes from today’s volume, 11% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.19% · tape −43.2 · corr -0.30
● peak +31 ◆ −31.6 in a day ▼ low −53.0 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $350 $273 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.19% while the tape has faded 43.2 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 79 (96th pct) · quality 90 · 28,715 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.37% avg, n=3,867
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led LRCX’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.22, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
pass Our record on LRCX is good 63% hit rate on 641 closed calls · payoff 0.99×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $319.70 highlighted. The $230 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,668). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on LRCX Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$319.70 → $319.70
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$325.00 → $319.70
−1.63% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$320.59 → $319.70
−0.28% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$320.59 → $319.70
−0.28% hit
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 143 of these 641 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 59.56 · fwd 31.43 Beta 1.967
52w $131.02–$438.50 IV rank —
Ask about LRCX answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +2 to −53 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +2.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to −29.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $350.42 to $329.51. It’s at −53.0 now.−46.9 from volume and −6.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:49 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our LRCX record what it is? What’s the $230 wall?
What our data projects
+0.86 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#14 of 635 · helped by tape composite, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $230 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Lam Research Corp · Semiconductors
Strongly bearish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−53.0 ┆ −29.5 yday evidence
has paid −0.37% · n=3,867
Why it’s −53
−46.9 volume · 12% calls−6.1 OI · 42% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −31.6 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $350 $273 Price −0.19%, tape −43.2 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 79 (96th pct) · quality 90 · 28,715 contracts
pass Stable 0.81 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led LRCX’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.22, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−46.9 pts
3,499 calls · 25,216 puts · bias −75.6
What’s on the books · 38%
−6.1 pts
57,817 call OI · 79,818 put OI · bias −16.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −0.19% · tape −43.2 · corr -0.30
● peak +31 ◆ −31.6 in a day ▼ low −53.0 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-09 $350 $273 Over 30 days, price has fallen 0.19% while the tape has faded 43.2 points. They agree.
63% hit rate · 641 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$319.70 → $319.70
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$325.00 → $319.70
−1.63% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$320.59 → $319.70
−0.28% hit
9 Oct · 4h
$320.59 → $319.70
−0.28% hit
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $230 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about LRCX
Why did the score drop from +2 to −53 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +2.1 on 7 Oct, then fell to −29.5 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $350.42 to $329.51. It’s at −53.0 now.−46.9 from volume and −6.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 15:49 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our LRCX record what it is? What’s the $230 wall?