MET MetLife Inc
$98.47 · +4.28% vs $94.43 close · scored 23:23 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 65/100
What changed
Composite weakened 94.6 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 65/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−25.0 composite┆ +69.7 yesterday (−94.6) −89.6 vs a week ago
Evidence
65 / 100 · top 25% today
1,653 contracts · quality 86 · stability 0.82
hasn’t paid +0.98% · n=6,363
What traded today · weight 62%
−18.5 pts
580 calls · 35.1% 1,073 puts
bias −29.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−6.5 pts
17,802 call OI · 41.5% 25,106 put OI
bias −17.0 × 0.38
Equals
−25.0
74% of the score comes from today’s volume, 26% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.27% · tape −35.5 · corr -0.44
▼ low −43.8 ◆ +96.5 in a day ● peak +70 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-08 $99 $94 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.27% while the tape has faded 35.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 86 · 1,653 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 36
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.98% avg, n=6,363
pass Tape has led price tape has led MET’s price by 1 day (r=-0.28, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on MET is poor 31% hit rate on 326 closed calls · payoff 1.92×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $98.47 highlighted. The $90 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 6,742). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
8 Oct · 4h
$98.47 → $98.47
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$94.43 → $94.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$94.35 → $94.35
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$94.35 → $94.35
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 152 of these 326 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 16.85 · fwd 8.87 Beta 0.793
52w $67.33–$100.93 IV rank —
Ask about MET answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +65 to −25 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +69.7 on 7 Oct, then fell to −25.0 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $94.43 to $94.43. It’s at −25.0 now.−18.5 from volume and −6.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 23:23 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our MET record what it is? What’s the $90 wall?
What our data projects
−0.35 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#590 of 724 · helped by quality, tape composite, composite change (3 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $90 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
MetLife Inc · Insurance
Mildly bearish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−25.0 ┆ +69.7 yday evidence
hasn’t paid +0.98% · n=6,363
Why it’s −25
−18.5 volume · 35% calls−6.5 OI · 41% calls
44 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +96.5 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-08 $99 $94 Price −3.27%, tape −35.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 65 (75th pct) · quality 86 · 1,653 contracts
pass Stable 0.82 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 36
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.98% avg, n=6,363
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−18.5 pts
580 calls · 1,073 puts · bias −29.8
What’s on the books · 38%
−6.5 pts
17,802 call OI · 25,106 put OI · bias −17.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.27% · tape −35.5 · corr -0.44
▼ low −43.8 ◆ +96.5 in a day ● peak +70 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-23 09-30 10-07 10-08 $99 $94 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.27% while the tape has faded 35.5 points. They agree.
31% hit rate · 326 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$98.47 → $98.47
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$94.43 → $94.43
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$94.35 → $94.35
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$94.35 → $94.35
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $90 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MET
Why did the score drop from +65 to −25 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +69.7 on 7 Oct, then fell to −25.0 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $94.43 to $94.43. It’s at −25.0 now.−18.5 from volume and −6.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 23:23 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our MET record what it is? What’s the $90 wall?