MMM

3M Co

$163.58 · +0.00% vs $163.58 close · scored 14:42 · stale

Decision brief

NEUTRAL · 60/100

What changed

The read is broadly unchanged.

Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.

What would change the view

composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 60/100

For the read

signal has been stable

Against / uncertainty

open interest leans against the read

The read

Neutral, moderately evidenced, but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.

−100 bearish0bullish +100

+1.0 composite┆ +1.0 yesterday (+0.0)−0.3 vs a week ago

Evidence

60 / 100 · top 38% today

1,626 contracts · quality 86 · stability 0.84

neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762

Why it’s +1

Method

What traded today · weight 62%

−7.4 pts

716 calls · 44.0%910 puts

bias −11.9 × 0.62

What’s on the books · weight 38%

+8.4 pts

13,845 call OI · 61.1%8,817 put OI

bias +22.2 × 0.38

Equals

+1.0

47% of the score comes from today’s volume, 53% from open interest. Disagree with either? See the method.

What changed: 45 days of tape against price

14d 43d 90d 365d · Reader

tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves30d: price −2.35% · tape −27.6 · corr 0.24

Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 2.35% while the tape has faded 27.6 points. They agree.

Should you trust it?

note

Some evidence, not a lot

confidence 60 (62th pct) · quality 86 · 1,626 contracts

pass

Stable

0.84 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 61

note

Neutral reads make no call

neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762

note

Tape is confirming, not predicting

price has led MMM’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.32, n=44)

against

Our record on MMM is poor

21% hit rate on 365 closed calls · payoff 0.49×

Where the positions sit

calls tradedstrikeputs traded

$187.5

$185

$182.5

$180

$177.5

$175

WALL · OI 5,319

$172.5

$170

$167.5

$165

$162.5

$160

$157.5

$155

$152.5

$150

$149

$145

$140

Spot $163.58 highlighted. The $175 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 5,319). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.

Our record on MMM

Proof

21%

hit rate · 365 closed

0.49×

payoff

−0.28%

avg return

9 Oct · 4h

$163.58 → $163.58

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$163.58 → $163.58

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$163.58 → $163.58

+0.00%flat

9 Oct · 4h

$163.58 → $163.58

+0.00%flat

One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 153 of these 365 calls were flat.

Catalysts & context

EPS surprise · last 4 quarters

+4.49%Q3 ’25

+0.72%Q4 ’25

+6.76%Q1 ’26

+5.83%Q2 ’26

Street Buy-leaningNext report — P/E 29.18 · fwd 17.72Beta 1.008 52w $139.34–$184.90IV rank —