MO Altria Group Inc
$67.35 · +0.00% vs $67.35 close · scored 04:51 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 64/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 64/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+25.3 composite−9.7 vs a week ago
Evidence
64 / 100 · top 28% today
9,468 contracts · quality 80 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −1.54% · n=340
What traded today · weight 62%
+9.3 pts
5,444 calls · 57.5% 4,024 puts
bias +15.0 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+16.0 pts
45,988 call OI · 71.1% 18,703 put OI
bias +42.2 × 0.38
Equals
+25.3
37% of the score comes from today’s volume, 63% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.20% · tape −7.5 · corr -0.32
▼ low −34.7 ◆ +67.4 in a day ● peak +58 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $71 $67 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.20% while the tape has faded 7.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 64 (72th pct) · quality 80 · 9,468 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.54% avg, n=340
pass Tape has led price tape has led MO’s price by 3 days (r=-0.23, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MO is poor 24% hit rate on 370 closed calls · payoff 0.50×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $67.35. The $70 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 10,250). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
3 Oct · 4h
$67.35 → $67.35
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$67.23 → $67.23
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$66.95 → $66.95
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$67.17 → $67.17
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 147 of these 370 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 14.47 · fwd 11.81 Beta 0.511
52w $54.70–$77.06 IV rank —
Ask about MO answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +17 to +25 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +16.6 on 1 Oct, then rose to +35.1 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $67.35 to $66.95. It’s at +25.3 now.+9.3 from volume and +16.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 04:51 method · 62/38
Compare with PM Why is our MO record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?
What our data projects
−0.39 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#531 of 635. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Altria Group Inc · Tobacco
Strongly bullish, moderately evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+25.3 evidence
hasn’t paid −1.54% · n=340
Why it’s +25
+9.3 volume · 57% calls+16.0 OI · 71% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +67.4 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $71 $67 Price −1.20%, tape −7.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 64 (72th pct) · quality 80 · 9,468 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · balanced · mid liquidity → −1.54% avg, n=340
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+9.3 pts
5,444 calls · 4,024 puts · bias +15.0
What’s on the books · 38%
+16.0 pts
45,988 call OI · 18,703 put OI · bias +42.2
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −1.20% · tape −7.5 · corr -0.32
▼ low −34.7 ◆ +67.4 in a day ● peak +58 08-27 09-03 09-10 09-17 09-24 10-01 10-09 $71 $67 Over 30 days, price has fallen 1.20% while the tape has faded 7.5 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
24% hit rate · 370 closed
3 Oct · 4h
$67.35 → $67.35
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$67.23 → $67.23
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$66.95 → $66.95
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$67.17 → $67.17
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $70 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MO
Why did the score rise from +17 to +25 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +16.6 on 1 Oct, then rose to +35.1 on 2 Oct as the price moved from $67.35 to $66.95. It’s at +25.3 now.+9.3 from volume and +16.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 04:51 method · 62/38
Compare with PM Why is our MO record what it is? What’s the $70 wall?