MSFT Microsoft Corp
$514.96 · +0.00% vs $514.96 close · scored 08:09 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 82/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 82/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+38.2 composite+0.0 vs a week ago
Evidence
82 / 100 · top 3% today
240,044 contracts · quality 85 · stability 0.00
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
What traded today · weight 62%
+25.9 pts
170,142 calls · 70.9% 69,902 puts
bias +41.8 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.3 pts
652,164 call OI · 66.2% 333,091 put OI
bias +32.4 × 0.38
Equals
+38.2
68% of the score comes from today’s volume, 32% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.25% · tape +14.7 · corr 0.42
▼ low +30.7 ◆ −6.1 in a day ● peak +40 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $516 $496 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 4.25% while the tape has firmed 14.7 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 82 (97th pct) · quality 85 · 240,044 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.17% avg, n=12,971
pass Tape has led price tape has led MSFT’s price by 1 day (r=-0.33, n=51)
against Our record on MSFT is poor 18% hit rate on 1836 closed calls · payoff 0.92×
04
Where the positions sit No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
Spot $514.96. The $550 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 90,460). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MSFT Proof 18%
hit rate · 1836 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$514.96 → $514.96
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$512.80 → $512.80
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$513.72 → $513.72
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$519.60 → $519.60
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1225 of these 1836 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 27.52 · fwd 22.94 Beta 1.064
52w $349.20–$553.72 IV rank —
Ask about MSFT answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +38.2?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +38.2 across the last 8 sessions.+25.9 from volume and +12.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 08:09 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our MSFT record what it is? What’s the $550 wall?
What our data projects
+0.22 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#154 of 635 · helped by quality, call/put volume tilt, confidence. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $550 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Microsoft Corp · Technology
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+38.2 evidence
has paid +1.17% · n=12,971
Why it’s +38
+25.9 volume · 71% calls+12.3 OI · 66% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −6.1 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $516 $496 Price +4.25%, tape +14.7 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 82 (97th pct) · quality 85 · 240,044 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against Our record on MSFT is poor 18% hit rate on 1836 closed calls · payoff 0.92×
What traded today · 62%
+25.9 pts
170,142 calls · 69,902 puts · bias +41.8
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.3 pts
652,164 call OI · 333,091 put OI · bias +32.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +4.25% · tape +14.7 · corr 0.42
▼ low +30.7 ◆ −6.1 in a day ● peak +40 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $516 $496 Over 30 days, price has risen 4.25% while the tape has firmed 14.7 points. They agree.
No per-strike chain is stored for this name yet, so we can’t show where the positions sit. The totals above still come from today’s chain.
18% hit rate · 1836 closed
2 Oct · 4h
$514.96 → $514.96
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$512.80 → $512.80
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$513.72 → $513.72
+0.00% flat
1 Oct · 4h
$519.60 → $519.60
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $550 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MSFT
What is behind today’s +38.2?
The composite has held within 0.5 points of +38.2 across the last 8 sessions.+25.9 from volume and +12.3 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 08:09 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our MSFT record what it is? What’s the $550 wall?