MSTR Strategy Inc
$154.34 · +0.00% vs $154.34 close · scored 16:13 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 80/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 38.4 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 80/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+63.1 composite┆ +24.7 yesterday (+38.4) +38.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
80 / 100 · top 2% today
371,095 contracts · quality 90 · stability 0.94
has paid +1.49% · n=3,239
What traded today · weight 62%
+25.1 pts
260,719 calls · 70.3% 110,376 puts
bias +40.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+38.0 pts
30 call OI · 100.0% 0 put OI
bias +100.0 × 0.38
Equals
+63.1
40% of the score comes from today’s volume, 60% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +17.84% · tape +33.5 · corr 0.07
▼ low +18.3 ● peak +63 ◆ +38.4 in a day 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-10 10-12 10-18 $161 $153 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 17.84% while the tape has firmed 33.5 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 80 (98th pct) · quality 90 · 371,095 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.49% avg, n=3,239
pass Tape has led price tape has led MSTR’s price by 2 days (r=-0.45, n=39)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MSTR is poor 19% hit rate on 722 closed calls · payoff 2.42×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $154.34 highlighted. The $45 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 30). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on MSTR Proof 12 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
12 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
11 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
11 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 457 of these 722 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E — Beta 3.620
52w $81.81–$365.21 IV rank —
Ask about MSTR answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from +27 to +63 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.7 on 11 Oct, then rose to +63.1 on 12 Oct as the price moved from $154.90 to $154.34. It’s at +63.1 now.+25.1 from volume and +38.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 40 pts stock_scores · 16:13 method · 62/38
Compare with SQ Why is our MSTR record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?
What our data projects
+0.29 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#60 of 1093 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How 0 of 1 checked projections for MSTR got the side of the market right; when it ranked in the top fifth it then did −1.07 pts vs the market on average.
Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Strategy Inc · Technology
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+63.1 ┆ +24.7 yday evidence
has paid +1.49% · n=3,239
Why it’s +63
+25.1 volume · 70% calls+38.0 OI · 100% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +38.4 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-10 10-12 10-18 $161 $153 Price +17.84%, tape +33.5 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 80 (98th pct) · quality 90 · 371,095 contracts
pass Stable 0.94 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 0
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on MSTR is poor 19% hit rate on 722 closed calls · payoff 2.42×
What traded today · 62%
+25.1 pts
260,719 calls · 110,376 puts · bias +40.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+38.0 pts
30 call OI · 0 put OI · bias +100.0
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +17.84% · tape +33.5 · corr 0.07
▼ low +18.3 ● peak +63 ◆ +38.4 in a day 09-29 10-01 10-03 10-05 10-07 10-10 10-12 10-18 $161 $153 Over 30 days, price has risen 17.84% while the tape has firmed 33.5 points. They agree.
19% hit rate · 722 closed
12 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
12 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
11 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
11 Oct · 4h
$154.34 → $154.34
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $45 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about MSTR
Why did the score rise from +27 to +63 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +24.7 on 11 Oct, then rose to +63.1 on 12 Oct as the price moved from $154.90 to $154.34. It’s at +63.1 now.+25.1 from volume and +38.0 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 40 pts stock_scores · 16:13 method · 62/38
Compare with SQ Why is our MSTR record what it is? What’s the $45 wall?