MTD
MTD
$1,684.64 · +0.00% vs $1,684.64 close · scored 23:56 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 41/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 41/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak
The read
Neutral, thinly evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+9.5 composite
Evidence
41 / 100 · top 77% today
29 contracts · quality 72 · stability 0.00
neutral · −1.25% · n=6,966
What traded today · weight 62%
−2.1 pts
14 calls · 48.3%15 puts
bias −3.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+11.6 pts
1,605 call OI · 65.3%854 put OI
bias +30.5 × 0.38
Equals
+9.5
16% of the score comes from today’s volume, 84% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring MTD today.
There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidenceconfidence 41 (23th pct) · quality 72 · 29 contracts
noteJumpy0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
noteNeutral reads make no callneutral · balanced · low liquidity → −1.25% avg, n=6,966
noteToo few of our calls checked1 closed call on MTD
04
Where the positions sit
calls tradedstrikeputs traded
Spot $1,684.64 highlighted. The $1,640 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 203).
22 Oct · 4h
$1,684.64 → $1,684.64
+0.00%flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat, and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context
EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street —Next report —
P/E —Beta —
52w —IV rank —
MTD
Neutral, thinly evidenced.
−100 bearish0bullish +100
+9.5evidence 41
neutral · −1.25% · n=6,966
Why it’s +9
−2.1 volume · 48% calls+11.6 OI · 65% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
againstThin evidence
confidence 41 (23th pct) · quality 72 · 29 contracts
noteJumpy
0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
noteNeutral reads make no call
neutral · balanced · low liquidity → −1.25% avg, n=6,966
noteToo few of our calls checked
1 closed call on MTD
What traded today · 62%
−2.1 pts
14 calls · 15 puts · bias −3.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+11.6 pts
1,605 call OI · 854 put OI · bias +30.5
tape composite (bars)— price◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
22 Oct · 4h
$1,684.64 → $1,684.64
+0.00%flat
The read flips to bearishcomposite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60conf · below
Price reaches the $1640 wallprice · below
3 days before earningsnot yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a daynot yet · delta
Ask about MTD
Not enough tape history on MTD for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.