NBIS Nebius Group NV
$221.07 · +0.62% vs $219.71 close · scored 11:59 · fresh
Decision brief
BULLISH · 86/100
What changed
The read is broadly unchanged.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 86/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+15.0 composite┆ +15.0 yesterday (+0.0) +2.8 vs a week ago
Evidence
86 / 100 · top 2% today
63,903 contracts · quality 94 · stability 0.92
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
What traded today · weight 62%
+14.5 pts
39,446 calls · 61.7% 24,457 puts
bias +23.5 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+0.5 pts
144,272 call OI · 50.6% 140,653 put OI
bias +1.3 × 0.38
Equals
+15.0
97% of the score comes from today’s volume, 3% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.02% · tape +5.7 · corr 0.48
◆ −24.9 in a day ▼ low −11.8 ● peak +27 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $244 $198 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.02% while the tape has firmed 5.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 86 (98th pct) · quality 94 · 63,903 contracts
pass Stable 0.92 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.05% avg, n=9,329
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led NBIS’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.30, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
against Our record on NBIS is poor 35% hit rate on 663 closed calls · payoff 2.57×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $221.07 highlighted. The $220 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 13,804). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on NBIS Proof 10 Oct · 4h
$221.07 → $221.07
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$221.07 → $221.07
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$221.07 → $221.07
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$221.54 → $221.07
−0.21% miss
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 302 of these 663 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 1,556.82 · fwd 800.11 Beta 1.106
52w $73.52–$299.86 IV rank —
Ask about NBIS answers from FlowDesk data only
You
What is behind today’s +15.0?
FlowDesk
The composite has held within 2.8 points of +15.0 across the last 8 sessions.+14.5 from volume and +0.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 11:59 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our NBIS record what it is? What’s the $220 wall?
What our data projects
+0.89 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#9 of 635 · helped by quality, price momentum (5 days), volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $220 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Nebius Group NV · Technology
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+15.0 ┆ +15.0 yday evidence
has paid +1.05% · n=9,329
Why it’s +15
+14.5 volume · 62% calls+0.5 OI · 51% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −24.9 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $244 $198 Price −8.02%, tape +5.7 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 86 (98th pct) · quality 94 · 63,903 contracts
pass Stable 0.92 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led NBIS’s tape by 2 days (r=-0.30, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits high relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+14.5 pts
39,446 calls · 24,457 puts · bias +23.5
What’s on the books · 38%
+0.5 pts
144,272 call OI · 140,653 put OI · bias +1.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −8.02% · tape +5.7 · corr 0.48
◆ −24.9 in a day ▼ low −11.8 ● peak +27 08-28 09-04 09-11 09-19 09-26 10-03 10-10 $244 $198 Over 30 days, price has fallen 8.02% while the tape has firmed 5.7 points. The two are drifting apart.
35% hit rate · 663 closed
10 Oct · 4h
$221.07 → $221.07
+0.00% flat
10 Oct · 4h
$221.07 → $221.07
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$221.07 → $221.07
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$221.54 → $221.07
−0.21% miss
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $220 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about NBIS
What is behind today’s +15.0?
The composite has held within 2.8 points of +15.0 across the last 8 sessions.+14.5 from volume and +0.5 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 11:59 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our NBIS record what it is? What’s the $220 wall?