NL NL
$6.80 · scored 08:41 · fresh
Decision brief
BEARISH · 30/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is current.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 30/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−41.9 composite
Evidence
30 / 100 · top 95% today
93 contracts · quality 39 · stability 0.00
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
What traded today · weight 62%
−26.0 pts
27 calls · 29.0% 66 puts
bias −41.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
No open interest stored for today’s chain.
Equals
−41.9
100% of the score comes from today’s volume, 0% from open interest. Smoothing and calibration add −15.9. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring NL today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 30 (5th pct) · quality 39 · 93 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 60
pass This kind of read has paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −0.25% avg, n=15,572
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on NL
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $6.80 highlighted. The $7.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 0). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
We haven’t checked a call on NL yet. Each read is checked 4 hours, 1 day and 3 days after it’s made.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
NL
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−41.9 evidence
has paid −0.25% · n=15,572
Why it’s −42
−26.0 volume · 29% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 30 (5th pct) · quality 39 · 93 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 60
note Too few of our calls checked 0 closed calls on NL
What traded today · 62%
−26.0 pts
27 calls · 66 puts · bias −41.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $7.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about NL
Not enough tape history on NL for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our NL record what it is? What’s the $7.5 wall?