NVDA NVIDIA Corp
$230.48 · +0.00% vs $230.48 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 90/100
What changed
Composite weakened 39.1 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 90/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bullish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+11.4 composite┆ +50.5 yesterday (−39.1) −8.1 vs a week ago
Evidence
90 / 100 · top 1% today
1,719,734 contracts · quality 98 · stability 0.95
has paid +1.11% · n=9,211
What traded today · weight 62%
+12.5 pts
1,032,643 calls · 60.0% 687,091 puts
bias +20.1 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−1.1 pts
517,114 call OI · 48.6% 547,605 put OI
bias −2.9 × 0.38
Equals
+11.4
92% of the score comes from today’s volume, 8% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.04% · tape −9.2 · corr -0.29
● peak +33 ◆ −7.2 in a day ▼ low +10.7 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $239 $225 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 3.04% while the tape has faded 9.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 90 (99th pct) · quality 98 · 1,719,734 contracts
pass Stable 0.95 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bullish · call-heavy · high liquidity → +1.11% avg, n=9,211
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led NVDA’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.41, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on NVDA is poor 22% hit rate on 1650 closed calls · payoff 1.23×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $230.48 highlighted. The $240 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 85,385). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on NVDA Proof 22%
hit rate · 1650 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 967 of these 1650 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report 26 Aug AMC
P/E 30.21 · fwd 17.02 Beta 2.259
52w $164.27–$240.10 IV rank —
Ask about NVDA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +20 to +11 this week?
FlowDesk
It moved over several days. The composite was +15.6 on 7 Oct, then fell to +10.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $239.24 to $239.24. It’s at +11.4 now.+12.5 from volume and −1.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our NVDA record what it is? What’s the $240 wall?
What our data projects
+0.52 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#61 of 724 · helped by quality, confidence, price momentum (5 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $240 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
NVIDIA Corp · Semiconductors
Mildly bullish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+11.4 ┆ +50.5 yday evidence
has paid +1.11% · n=9,211
Why it’s +11
+12.5 volume · 60% calls−1.1 OI · 49% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −7.2 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $239 $225 Price +3.04%, tape −9.2 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 90 (99th pct) · quality 98 · 1,719,734 contracts
pass Stable 0.95 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 47
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led NVDA’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.41, n=51)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+12.5 pts
1,032,643 calls · 687,091 puts · bias +20.1
What’s on the books · 38%
−1.1 pts
517,114 call OI · 547,605 put OI · bias −2.9
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +3.04% · tape −9.2 · corr -0.29
● peak +33 ◆ −7.2 in a day ▼ low +10.7 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $239 $225 Over 30 days, price has risen 3.04% while the tape has faded 9.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
22% hit rate · 1650 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$230.48 → $230.48
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $240 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about NVDA
Why did the score drop from +20 to +11 this week?
It moved over several days. The composite was +15.6 on 7 Oct, then fell to +10.7 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $239.24 to $239.24. It’s at +11.4 now.+12.5 from volume and −1.1 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 52 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with INTC Why is our NVDA record what it is? What’s the $240 wall?