OKTA Okta Inc
$220.21 · +0.00% vs $220.21 close · scored 14:22 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 72/100
What changed
Composite weakened 10.3 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 72/100
For the read
options volume favours puts · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Mildly bearish, well evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−20.0 composite┆ −9.8 yesterday (−10.3) −26.4 vs a week ago
Evidence
72 / 100 · top 12% today
8,349 contracts · quality 89 · stability 0.88
has paid −0.21% · n=1,405
What traded today · weight 62%
−19.2 pts
2,885 calls · 34.6% 5,464 puts
bias −30.9 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−0.9 pts
23,072 call OI · 48.8% 24,169 put OI
bias −2.3 × 0.38
Equals
−20.0
96% of the score comes from today’s volume, 4% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +29.92% · tape −37.9 · corr -0.03
▼ low −28.1 ● peak +18 ◆ +46.4 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $220 $167 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 29.92% while the tape has faded 37.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (88th pct) · quality 89 · 8,349 contracts
pass Stable 0.88 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 34
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · mid liquidity → −0.21% avg, n=1,405
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led OKTA’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.19, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on OKTA is poor 13% hit rate on 304 closed calls · payoff 0.61×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $220.21 highlighted. The $230 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 3,665). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on OKTA Proof 9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 155 of these 304 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 129.44 · fwd 46.92 Beta 0.711
52w $62.66–$219.68 IV rank —
Ask about OKTA answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +6 to −20 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +6.4 on 7 Oct, then fell to −19.6 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $218.29 to $218.29. It’s at −20.0 now.−19.2 from volume and −0.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:22 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our OKTA record what it is? What’s the $230 wall?
What our data projects
+0.19 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#179 of 724 · helped by quality, tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $230 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Okta Inc · Technology
Mildly bearish, well evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−20.0 ┆ −9.8 yday evidence
has paid −0.21% · n=1,405
Why it’s −20
−19.2 volume · 35% calls−0.9 OI · 49% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +46.4 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $220 $167 Price +29.92%, tape −37.9 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 72 (88th pct) · quality 89 · 8,349 contracts
pass Stable 0.88 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 34
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led OKTA’s tape by 1 day (r=-0.19, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−19.2 pts
2,885 calls · 5,464 puts · bias −30.9
What’s on the books · 38%
−0.9 pts
23,072 call OI · 24,169 put OI · bias −2.3
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +29.92% · tape −37.9 · corr -0.03
▼ low −28.1 ● peak +18 ◆ +46.4 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-09 $220 $167 Over 30 days, price has risen 29.92% while the tape has faded 37.9 points. The two are drifting apart.
13% hit rate · 304 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$220.21 → $220.21
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $230 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about OKTA
Why did the score drop from +6 to −20 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +6.4 on 7 Oct, then fell to −19.6 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $218.29 to $218.29. It’s at −20.0 now.−19.2 from volume and −0.9 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 14:22 method · 62/38
Compare with ORCL Why is our OKTA record what it is? What’s the $230 wall?