PAR PAR
$17.75 · scored 02:02 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 48/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 48/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low
The read
Mildly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−12.6 composite
Evidence
48 / 100 · top 55% today
1,367 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
has paid −1.31% · n=3,939
What traded today · weight 62%
−36.3 pts
283 calls · 20.7% 1,084 puts
bias −58.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+23.7 pts
19,312 call OI · 81.2% 4,466 put OI
bias +62.4 × 0.38
Equals
−12.6
60% of the score comes from today’s volume, 40% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring PAR today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 48 (45th pct) · quality 77 · 1,367 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
pass This kind of read has paid mildly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −1.31% avg, n=3,939
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on PAR
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $17.75 highlighted. The $24 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 7,940).
21 Oct · 4h
$17.75 → $17.75
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
PAR
Mildly bearish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−12.6 evidence
has paid −1.31% · n=3,939
Why it’s −13
−36.3 volume · 21% calls+23.7 OI · 81% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 48 (45th pct) · quality 77 · 1,367 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 100
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on PAR
What traded today · 62%
−36.3 pts
283 calls · 1,084 puts · bias −58.6
What’s on the books · 38%
+23.7 pts
19,312 call OI · 4,466 put OI · bias +62.4
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
21 Oct · 4h
$17.75 → $17.75
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $24 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PAR
Not enough tape history on PAR for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our PAR record what it is? What’s the $24 wall?