PD PagerDuty Inc
$16.69 · +0.00% vs $16.69 close · scored 20:54 · stale
Decision brief
BEARISH · 38/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite rises above -15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 38/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−29.0 composite+22.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
38 / 100 · top 80% today
88 contracts · quality 43 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid +0.36% · n=16,987
What traded today · weight 62%
−53.5 pts
6 calls · 6.8% 82 puts
bias −86.4 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+24.6 pts
1,031 call OI · 82.3% 221 put OI
bias +64.7 × 0.38
Equals
−29.0
69% of the score comes from today’s volume, 31% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +24.01% · tape +23.6 · corr -0.64
▼ low −52.7 ● peak +59 ◆ +112.1 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-13 $17 $14 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 24.01% while the tape has firmed 23.6 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 38 (20th pct) · quality 43 · 88 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.36% avg, n=16,987
pass Tape has led price tape has led PD’s price by 2 days (r=0.29, n=43)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on PD is poor 6% hit rate on 232 closed calls · payoff 2.82×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $16.69 highlighted. The $15 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 745). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
13 Oct · 4h
$16.69 → $16.69
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$15.73 → $15.73
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$15.58 → $15.58
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$15.58 → $15.58
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 188 of these 232 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Buy-leaning Next report —
P/E 6.52 · fwd 11.34 Beta 0.975
52w $5.70–$16.77 IV rank —
Ask about PD answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score rise from −52 to −29 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was −51.8 on 7 Oct, then rose to +13.6 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $15.58 to $15.58. It’s at −29.0 now.−53.5 from volume and +24.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 20:54 method · 62/38
Compare with SQ Why is our PD record what it is? What’s the $15 wall?
What our data projects
−0.83 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#854 of 855 · helped by tape composite, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $15 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
PagerDuty Inc · Technology
Strongly bearish, thinly evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
−29.0 evidence
hasn’t paid +0.36% · n=16,987
Why it’s −29
−53.5 volume · 7% calls+24.6 OI · 82% calls
14 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +112.1 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-13 $17 $14 Price +24.01%, tape +23.6 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 38 (20th pct) · quality 43 · 88 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 80
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bearish · put-heavy · low liquidity → +0.36% avg, n=16,987
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
−53.5 pts
6 calls · 82 puts · bias −86.4
What’s on the books · 38%
+24.6 pts
1,031 call OI · 221 put OI · bias +64.7
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +24.01% · tape +23.6 · corr -0.64
▼ low −52.7 ● peak +59 ◆ +112.1 in a day 09-26 09-28 09-30 10-02 10-04 10-06 10-08 10-13 $17 $14 Over 30 days, price has risen 24.01% while the tape has firmed 23.6 points. They agree.
6% hit rate · 232 closed
13 Oct · 4h
$16.69 → $16.69
+0.00% flat
8 Oct · 4h
$15.73 → $15.73
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$15.58 → $15.58
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$15.58 → $15.58
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bullish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $15 wall price · below
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PD
Why did the score rise from −52 to −29 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was −51.8 on 7 Oct, then rose to +13.6 on 8 Oct as the price moved from $15.58 to $15.58. It’s at −29.0 now.−53.5 from volume and +24.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 44 pts stock_scores · 20:54 method · 62/38
Compare with SQ Why is our PD record what it is? What’s the $15 wall?