PGR Progressive Corp
$218.73 · +0.00% vs $218.73 close · scored 14:42 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 54/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 54/100
For the read
No strong confirming evidence isolated.
Against / uncertainty
signal stability is low
The read
Neutral, moderately evidenced , but it’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+5.2 composite−33.2 vs a week ago
Evidence
54 / 100 · top 52% today
1,147 contracts · quality 77 · stability 0.00
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
What traded today · weight 62%
+5.4 pts
623 calls · 54.3% 524 puts
bias +8.6 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
−0.2 pts
5,396 call OI · 49.8% 5,450 put OI
bias −0.5 × 0.38
Equals
+5.2
97% of the score comes from today’s volume, 3% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.26% · tape −30.2 · corr 0.04
● peak +53 ▼ low −35.5 ◆ +67.6 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $225 $202 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has risen 1.26% while the tape has faded 30.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
03
Should you trust it? note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 77 · 1,147 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PGR’s tape by 3 days (r=0.40, n=44)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on PGR is poor 28% hit rate on 295 closed calls · payoff 1.46×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $218.73 highlighted. The $240 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 2,017). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 158 of these 295 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 10.45 · fwd 12.34 Beta 0.227
52w $189.20–$247.49 IV rank —
Ask about PGR answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +22 to +5 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +38.4 on 2 Oct, then fell to +6.0 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $210.96 to $210.31. It’s at +5.2 now.+5.4 from volume and −0.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our PGR record what it is? What’s the $240 wall?
What our data projects
−0.34 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#507 of 635 · helped by tape composite. Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $240 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
Progressive Corp · Insurance
Neutral, moderately evidenced . It’s confirming price rather than calling it.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+5.2 evidence
neutral · +0.46% · n=12,762
Why it’s +5
+5.4 volume · 54% calls−0.2 OI · 50% calls
45 days · tape bars, price line
◆ +67.6 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $225 $202 Price +1.26%, tape −30.2 over 30 days. The two are drifting apart.
Should you trust it?
note Some evidence, not a lot confidence 54 (48th pct) · quality 77 · 1,147 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
note Neutral reads make no call neutral · balanced · low liquidity → +0.46% avg, n=12,762
note Tape is confirming, not predicting price has led PGR’s tape by 3 days (r=0.40, n=44)
What traded today · 62%
+5.4 pts
623 calls · 524 puts · bias +8.6
What’s on the books · 38%
−0.2 pts
5,396 call OI · 5,450 put OI · bias −0.5
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price +1.26% · tape −30.2 · corr 0.04
● peak +53 ▼ low −35.5 ◆ +67.6 in a day 08-25 09-01 09-08 09-15 09-22 09-29 10-06 10-09 $225 $202 Over 30 days, price has risen 1.26% while the tape has faded 30.2 points. The two are drifting apart.
28% hit rate · 295 closed
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
9 Oct · 4h
$218.73 → $218.73
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $240 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PGR
Why did the score drop from +22 to +5 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +38.4 on 2 Oct, then fell to +6.0 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $210.96 to $210.31. It’s at +5.2 now.+5.4 from volume and −0.2 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 45 pts stock_scores · 14:42 method · 62/38
Compare with TRV Why is our PGR record what it is? What’s the $240 wall?