PYPL PayPal Holdings Inc
$55.02 · +4.20% vs $52.80 close · scored 23:23 · stale
Decision brief
BULLISH · 82/100
What changed
Composite strengthened 4.8 points.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite falls below +15 · confidence deteriorates materially from 82/100
For the read
options volume favours calls · open interest agrees with the read · signal has been stable · evidence confidence is high
Against / uncertainty
No material contradiction isolated.
The read
Strongly bullish, well evidenced , and the tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+30.1 composite┆ +25.3 yesterday (+4.8) −21.9 vs a week ago
Evidence
82 / 100 · top 3% today
26,699 contracts · quality 93 · stability 0.91
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
What traded today · weight 62%
+17.5 pts
17,123 calls · 64.1% 9,576 puts
bias +28.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+12.6 pts
127,806 call OI · 66.6% 64,215 put OI
bias +33.1 × 0.38
Equals
+30.1
58% of the score comes from today’s volume, 42% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.93% · tape −15.4 · corr 0.07
● peak +76 ▼ low −16.4 ◆ −61.9 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $62 $52 Plain English: Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.93% while the tape has faded 15.4 points. They agree.
03
Should you trust it? pass Plenty behind it confidence 82 (97th pct) · quality 93 · 26,699 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
pass Tape has led price tape has led PYPL’s price by 2 days (r=-0.29, n=49)
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
against Our record on PYPL is poor 4% hit rate on 2000 closed calls · payoff 0.14×
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $55.02 highlighted. The $60 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 27,201). Near-dated expiry in the mix, so OI is noisier.
05 Our record on PYPL Proof 8 Oct · 4h
$55.02 → $55.02
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$52.80 → $52.80
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$53.30 → $53.30
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$53.06 → $53.06
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1650 of these 2000 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
Street Mixed Next report —
P/E 9.53 · fwd 9.32 Beta 1.338
52w $38.46–$79.22 IV rank —
Ask about PYPL answers from FlowDesk data only
You
Why did the score drop from +52 to +30 this week?
FlowDesk
It was mostly one day. The composite was +56.7 on 2 Oct, then fell to +25.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $53.06 to $52.80. It’s at +30.1 now.+17.5 from volume and +12.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 23:23 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our PYPL record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?
What our data projects
+0.18 points vs the market, next 5 trading days
#175 of 635 · helped by quality, confidence, volatility (20 days). Not trusted yet: context, not a call.
How Tell me when… The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Sign in to set alerts. Composite, price and evidence rules work today; earnings and one-day-move rules aren’t built yet.
PayPal Holdings Inc · Financial Services
Strongly bullish, well evidenced . The tape has led price here.
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+30.1 ┆ +25.3 yday evidence
hasn’t paid −1.64% · n=25,061
Why it’s +30
+17.5 volume · 64% calls+12.6 OI · 67% calls
43 days · tape bars, price line
◆ −61.9 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $62 $52 Price −3.93%, tape −15.4 over 30 days. The two agree.
Should you trust it?
pass Plenty behind it confidence 82 (97th pct) · quality 93 · 26,699 contracts
pass Stable 0.91 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 21
against This kind of read hasn’t paid strongly bullish · call-heavy · mid liquidity → −1.64% avg, n=25,061
note Stretched vs its own history today’s tape sits low relative to price
What traded today · 62%
+17.5 pts
17,123 calls · 9,576 puts · bias +28.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+12.6 pts
127,806 call OI · 64,215 put OI · bias +33.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves 30d: price −3.93% · tape −15.4 · corr 0.07
● peak +76 ▼ low −16.4 ◆ −61.9 in a day 08-26 09-02 09-09 09-16 09-24 10-01 10-08 $62 $52 Over 30 days, price has fallen 3.93% while the tape has faded 15.4 points. They agree.
4% hit rate · 2000 closed
8 Oct · 4h
$55.02 → $55.02
+0.00% flat
3 Oct · 4h
$52.80 → $52.80
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$53.30 → $53.30
+0.00% flat
2 Oct · 4h
$53.06 → $53.06
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $60 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about PYPL
Why did the score drop from +52 to +30 this week?
It was mostly one day. The composite was +56.7 on 2 Oct, then fell to +25.3 on 3 Oct as the price moved from $53.06 to $52.80. It’s at +30.1 now.+17.5 from volume and +12.6 from open interest. I can’t split past days the same way: the stored history keeps call/put volume but not open interest for past days.
tape_history · 50 pts stock_scores · 23:23 method · 62/38
Compare with HOOD Why is our PYPL record what it is? What’s the $60 wall?