REF REF
$15.58 · +0.00% vs $15.58 close · scored 21:38 · stale
Decision brief
NEUTRAL · 34/100
What changed
No prior comparable read.
Evidence is stale — treat this read cautiously.
What would change the view
composite leaves the neutral band · confidence deteriorates materially from 34/100
For the read
options volume favours puts
Against / uncertainty
open interest leans against the read · signal stability is low · evidence confidence is weak · data quality is weak
The read
Mildly bullish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.0 composite
Evidence
34 / 100 · top 90% today
3 contracts · quality 38 · stability 0.00
hasn’t paid −7.78% · n=532
What traded today · weight 62%
−20.7 pts
1 calls · 33.3% 2 puts
bias −33.3 × 0.62
What’s on the books · weight 38%
+34.6 pts
1,230 call OI · 95.6% 57 put OI
bias +91.1 × 0.38
Equals
+14.0
37% of the score comes from today’s volume, 63% from open interest. Disagree with either?
See the method.
— price ◆ big one-day moves
NO HISTORY YET
We started scoring REF today. There’s one reading so far. The 14-day chart fills in as the hourly tape arrives. Nothing here is back-filled or guessed.
03
Should you trust it? against Thin evidence confidence 34 (10th pct) · quality 38 · 3 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −7.78% avg, n=532
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on REF
04
Where the positions sit calls traded strike puts traded
Spot $15.58 highlighted. The $17.50 strike holds the most open interest (the “wall”, 1,051).
25 Oct · 4h
$15.58 → $15.58
+0.00% flat
One rule everywhere: a move of 0.05% or less is flat , and flat is not a hit. That is the same rule Proof uses; 1 of these 1 calls were flat.
06
Catalysts & context EPS surprise · last 4 quarters
No reported quarters stored yet.
Street — Next report —
P/E — Beta —
52w — IV rank —
REF
Mildly bullish, thinly evidenced .
−100 bearish 0 bullish +100
+14.0 evidence
hasn’t paid −7.78% · n=532
Why it’s +14
−20.7 volume · 33% calls+34.6 OI · 96% calls
1 days · tape bars, price line
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
Should you trust it?
against Thin evidence confidence 34 (10th pct) · quality 38 · 3 contracts
note Jumpy 0.00 vs 7-day rolling · choppiness 50
against This kind of read hasn’t paid mildly bullish · put-heavy · low liquidity → −7.78% avg, n=532
note Too few of our calls checked 1 closed call on REF
What traded today · 62%
−20.7 pts
1 calls · 2 puts · bias −33.3
What’s on the books · 38%
+34.6 pts
1,230 call OI · 57 put OI · bias +91.1
— price ◆ big one-day moves
Not enough tape history to draw this yet.
0% hit rate · 1 closed
25 Oct · 4h
$15.58 → $15.58
+0.00% flat
The read flips to bearish composite · crosses 0
Evidence drops below 60 conf · below
Price reaches the $17.5 wall price · above
3 days before earnings not yet · earnings
Score moves ≥10 in a day not yet · delta
Ask about REF
Not enough tape history on REF for a weekly brief yet. Ask anything below.
Why is our REF record what it is? What’s the $17.5 wall?